The Cleveland Guardians (62%) are heavy favorites over the Detroit Tigers in today's series finale at 1:40 p.m. ET, and it's not hard to see why.
Gavin Williams is a high-end pitcher who has led the Guardians to an 11-4 record in his home starts. My Tigers vs. Guardians prediction and MLB picks are banking on another low-scoring victory at Progressive Field this afternoon.
Who will win Tigers vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (62%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Gavin Williams has allowed more damage over the past month, but the numbers under the hood (2.85 xERA, 2.86 SIERA, 36.8K%) are all very much elite.
He should chew up a Detroit Tigers offense that ranks 28th in batting average and wOBA vs. right-handed pitching over the same stretch.
Jackson Jobe’s taken a clear step back after throwing five clean innings against a bad Giants team in his season debut, posting xFIPs of 5.83, 4.50, 4.37, and 5.41.
The Cleveland Guardians will provide Williams the support he needs. Play to 65%.
COVERS INTEL: The Tigers rank 29th in OPS against righties since August 6, making them an unlikely candidate to take advantage of Williams' 27th percentile HR rate.
Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (52%)
The Tigers aren’t just struggling to string together hits. They aren’t generating any power.
Their .111 ISO against righties over the past month slots them dead last, and Williams’ home run suppression numbers are much better at home.
Jobe is not near the talent Williams is, but the Guardians sit 30th in barrel rate against righties the last 30 days. They aren’t hitting for much power, which significantly lowers their offensive ceiling.
I see a 4-2 type of game in the cards, and would play the Under to 54%.
Tigers vs Guardians home run prediction: Travis Bazzana (9%)
Travis Bazzana appears to be just fine after getting drilled in the hand by the Blue Jays a few days ago. He has since made two starts, putting together multi-hit performances in each.
He has a good chance of staying hot against Jobe, who has allowed 1.69 HR/9 against left-handed batters this season.
Jobe is a fastball-first pitcher, and Bazzana is sporting a .312 average, .271 ISO, and near 50% hard-hit rate against righty fastballs.
- ML/RL bets: 101-91, -11.03 units
- Over/Under bets: 97-89-6, -4.32 units
Tigers vs Guardians weather
Temperatures are expected to hover around 70 with strong winds blowing in. A clear boost to the pitchers.
Tigers vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Tigers 39% | Guardians 62%
- Run line: Tigers +1.5 (59%) | Guardians -1.5 (42%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (49%) | Under 7.5 (52%)
Tigers vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have cashed the Under in 13 of their last 20 games for +3.95 units and a 17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | DSN, CleGuardians.TV |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jackson Jobe (1-2, 4.63 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Gavin Williams (13-7, 3.81 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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