A couple of AL East rivals will look to turn their fortunes around when the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays collide at Rogers Centre on Friday night for the first meeting of a three-game set.
The Jays are coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers while scoring just nine total runs in the series. They’ll try to get their bats going against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, who’s had a few hiccups in recent outings.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays limp into this series after dropping four straight to Texas — a big blow to the club’s AL Wild Card chances.
The Blue Jays now sit 2.5 games back of the Rangers and 1.5 back of the Mariners for the third and final Wild Card position, with the Boston Red Sox another six games back of Toronto.
The main reason for the Jays’ four-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers was their lack of offense as Toronto averaged a mere 2.25 runs per game in the series.
Davis Schneider, who had ignited the offense in August with 14 RBI and a .426 average through his first 14 MLB games, has cooled off with just three hits and one RBI over his last six outings.
With the rookie cooling off, you would expect that some of Toronto’s stars would be able to step up and take the reins but that hasn’t really happened. Bo Bichette is batting just .174 with two RBI over the past week while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been slightly better, batting .200 with four RBI in his last seven games.
The Red Sox offense hasn’t been great this week, either, scoring just 3.25 runs per game over their last four outings while dropping three of those contests to the Yankees.
Neither Brayan Bello nor Jose Berrios has been sensational over their last handful of starts but if the starters can just be solid against these struggling offenses, we should see the clubs finish Under 8.5 runs tonight.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-117 at SIA)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Under 8.5 (-130)
Rafael Devers to record 2+ total bases (+105)
Wilyer Abreu to record 2+ total bases (+155)
Along with taking the Under on 8.5 runs, we’ll focus on a couple of Red Sox batters in tonight’s same-game parlay in Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu.
Devers leads the club with 17 total bases over the past week while batting .417 and is fresh off a three-hit, six-base performance against the Yankees. The third baseman has recorded multiple bases in seven of his last 12 contests and should be a relatively safe bet to do so again vs. Toronto.
Boston also has its own standout rookie in Abreu, who’s been mashing at the plate over his last few games. The 24-year-old had a massive five-hit outing against the Orioles last Saturday and put up another three hits vs. the Yankees yesterday.
The left-handed batter is hitting an impressive .395 against righties so far in his young MLB career and will pay out nicely if he grabs another two bases tonight.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays head into tonight’s game as the home favorite at -131 on the moneyline and despite Toronto creeping into must-win territory at this point of the season, they haven’t inspired much confidence of late while the Red Sox could very well have the pitching edge tonight.
Bello has allowed three earned runs in back-to-back starts but has at least been pretty consistent, posting a 3.34 ERA across his six starts in August. Meanwhile, Berrios has allowed two earned runs in each of his last two outings but was a disaster prior to that, giving up 5+ runs in three of his last four starts in August while posting a 5.53 ERA last month.
Berrios has been brutal against the Red Sox this season too, giving up at least three earned runs in all three of his starts vs. Boston so I think the visitors could be the smarter play.
I also like the Under on 8.5 runs just because of how both teams have been trending offensively. The Jays haven’t scored more than four runs in any of their past four outings while the Red Sox have scored five runs or fewer in four straight games.
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Trend to know
The Under is 3-1 in Boston’s last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
|Location:||Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Friday, September 15, 2023|
|First pitch:||7:07 p.m. ET|
|TV:||NESN, Rogers Sportsnet|
Brayan Bello (12-8, 3.68 ERA): Bello has given up three runs in consecutive starts but still managed to pick up the win in both games. The right-hander is now 4-1 over his last five outings, holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in three of those contests. He held Toronto to two earned runs over five innings in his only meeting against them this season.
Jose Berrios (10-10, 3.63 ERA): It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Berrios of late as the right-hander has bounced back and forth between quality outings and disasters. Berrios gave up 17 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings last month but has now allowed just four earned runs over his last 13 innings, albeit against two terrible teams in Oakland and Kansas City.
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