The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees for the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader, with New York priced as a slight 54% favorite as I make my Rays vs. Yankees predictions
Nick Martinez faces Carlos Rodon in a matchup between two starters carrying ERAs below 3.00. If the Yankees don't sweep the four-game set, the Rays will clinch the AL East. That includes this afternoon's matchup.
My MLB picks for Sept. 22 give New York the edge while also targeting a low-scoring opener.
Who will win Rays vs Yankees Game 1 today: Yankees
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There isn't much separating these teams, but I think Carlos Rodon gives the New York Yankees enough of a matchup advantage to justify backing them to 55% in what is a massive series for both teams.
The Tampa Bay Rays have produced just a 91 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in MLB. And now they draw a southpaw whose most significant strength directly attacks an area where the Rays haven't been consistently producing.
Rodon's 26% strikeout rate ranks in the 79th percentile, while his 29% whiff rate sits in the 80th percentile. Opponents are managing only a .217 xBA against him, and his slider has been particularly difficult to solve.
Nick Martinez presents a much different challenge. His command and contact management have been excellent, but he sits in just the fifth percentile in strikeout rate and third percentile in whiff rate.
That gives a Yankees lineup that leads the American League in dingers more opportunities to put the ball in play and eventually punish a mistake.
COVERS INTEL: Carlos Rodon's slider has generated a 42.4% strikeout rate with a .234 xwOBA this season.
Rays vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
Martinez's profile is a little strange, but it works for the Under to 58%.
He doesn't miss many bats, yet he's been extremely difficult to square up. Martinez ranks in the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 66th percentile in barrel rate, while his 3.5% walk rate is the best among qualified pitchers.
That combination forces offenses to string hits together rather than relying on free baserunners and damaging contact, which is particularly useful against a Yankees lineup missing its best hitter.
On the other side, Tampa Bay's .688 OPS against left-handed pitching runs directly into Rodon's best attributes.
If Martinez can keep the ball in the yard and Rodon takes advantage of Tampa Bay's left-handed split, there are plenty of paths to a 3-2 or 4-2 type of opener.
Rays vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice
Ben Rice remains my preferred Yankees home run target.
Rice owns a .508 xSLG and 14.0% barrel rate, giving him one of the strongest power profiles in New York's lineup.
Martinez's contact suppression makes this a difficult matchup overall, but his complete lack of strikeout stuff gives Rice an advantage. Rice also hits Martinez's most serviceable pitches very well.
- ML/RL picks: 54-49, +10.25 units
- Over/Under picks: 59-42, +19.30 units
Rays vs Yankees weather
Temperatures should sit around 63 degrees at Yankee Stadium with partly cloudy skies and winds around 14 to 15 mph.
The cooler conditions aren't particularly favorable for offense, while the breeze is worth monitoring closer to first pitch. The weather isn't enough to drive my Under handicap, but I don't see a reason to upgrade the bats either.
Rays vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Rays 48% | Yankees 52%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Rays vs Yankees trend
The Under is 5-0 in the Rays' last five versus the American League East. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (15-4, 2.94 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.95 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
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