The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros clash tonight at Daikin Park in the series opener of a four-game set.
Houston is swinging the bats well lately, and my Rays vs. Astros predictions will explain why I expect them to produce against Shane Baz.
I break the matchup down further with my MLB picks for Thursday, May 29.
Rays vs Astros prediction
My Rays vs Astros best bet: Shane Baz Over 2.5 earned runs (+115 at bet365)
Shane Baz isn’t having the greatest campaign for the Tampa Bay Rays, going 4-3 with a 4.93 ERA in 10 starts. He’s had trouble with the home run, allowing 10 of them. Overall, opponents are hitting .262 against the right-hander. While he gave up just one earned run in his last start against the Blue Jays, I’m predicting him to struggle tonight.
Before that outing, Baz surrendered Over 2.5 earned runs in three straight appearances. He allowed 16 earned runs during that span. Baz’s stats on the road aren’t great, either. He’s compiled a 4.08 ERA in three starts, giving up eight earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work.
The 25-year-old allowed five earned runs in 12 1/3 innings against the Houston Astros in 2024, and although there’s a very small sample size when it comes to his history against them, Baz does struggle with consistency. Houston also just scored 16 runs across their last two games against the Athletics.
The righty will get hit around a bit tonight.
Rays vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Shane Baz Over 2.5 earned runs
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 hits
Astros moneyline
Jeremy Pena is having a solid season for the Astros. He’s one of their best hitters, batting .297 with seven home runs and 27 RBI. Pena is getting it done on both sides of the ball, and he’s swinging it well in May, hitting .313.
Pena has cashed the Over in hits in four consecutive games, with a pair of multi-hit games during that span. His average jumps up to .342 at home compared to .242 on the road, and he’s also batting .294 against right-handed hurlers. Pena is 3-for-6 lifetime against Baz as well. He’ll do some damage this evening.
Despite their injury problems, Houston has been playing well lately. They’ve won five of their last six and just swept the Athletics across a two-game series. The Astros are also a mile better at Daikin Park, compiling a 20-10 record compared to 10-15 on the road. They thrive off the home crowd.
Despite dropping two of three to the Rays earlier this month, they went 4-2 against Tampa last season, and that series was on the road. They’ve also cashed the moneyline in 17 of their previous 22 contests at home. Houston will keep it rolling and extend their winning streak to five.
Rays vs Astros odds
Rays vs Astros live odds
Rays vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +100 | Houston -120
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-210) | Houston -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rays vs Astros trend
The Astros have cashed the moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.20 units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros.
How to watch Rays vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 5-29-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN, SCHN |
| Rays starting pitcher | Shane Baz (4-3, 4.94 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ryan Gusto (3-2, 4.58 ERA) |
Rays vs Astros latest injuries
Rays vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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