MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Saturday, May 16

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: May 16, 2026 , 09:32 AM ET • 4 min read

Quinn Allen believes Kyle Schwarber will go yard yet again.

MLB Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Another full slate in the majors means lots of opportunities for the ball to leave the yard.

My home run prop breakdown will focus on Kyle Schwarber and Matt McLain. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, May 16. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR Odds
Phillies Kyle Schwarber +266
Reds Matt McLain +750
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Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+266)

Kyle Schwarber smacked his MLB-leading 19th and 20th home runs in Friday's victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates as he continues to stay hot.

The slugger has now gone deep in seven of his last eight games, and three times across his previous two contests.

The veteran is tearing the cover off the baseball, and no matter who is facing him, he's doing damage. Pirates SP Bubba Chandler has served up six homers across his last six starts.

Schwarber has also smacked his last four bombs on the road, and the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Bucs again here. 

  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBCSP, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Home run pick: Matt McLain (+750)

Perhaps Matt McLain isn't the most household name in the big leagues, but he's on a tear lately.

The Cincinnati Reds second baseman has cracked home runs in back-to-back games, finishing 2-for-3 on Friday against the Cleveland Guardians with a bomb. 

McLain will face Gavin Williams here, who has allowed eight home runs in just nine starts this season.

McLain has never faced Williams, but he's coming in hot, and Williams has allowed 10 earned runs across his previous two outings, including a pair of long balls. 

  • Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Reds.TV, Guardians TV
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 6-33, -2.08 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications including ClutchPoints, Gino Hard, and RG, where he plies his trade as a writer and editor.

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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