The Texas Rangers, one of the best teams in baseball, will travel to the Bronx to start a three-game series against the New York Yankees this evening.
The Rangers will enter tonight with the third-best record in MLB after taking two of three from the Chicago White Sox. Their latest win of the season came on Wednesday in a 6-3 triumph against Chicago. The last month for the Yankees has been bumpy, as New York has felt both starting pitching woes and injuries. It has now lost five of its previous seven, including being swept by the Boston Red Sox a week ago.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Yankees on Friday, June 23.
Rangers vs Yankees odds
Rangers vs Yankees predictions
The immediate jump out of this game was my projected total. A hot, humid, and slightly windy night in the Bronx should make for good hitting conditions. My projections have followed suit, launching a significant difference between the actual total (8.5) and the projected one (11). I'm grabbing the Over 8.5 as my best bet tonight.
Clarke Schmidt is an excellent example of a decent portion of the Yankees rotation in that his starts aren't good enough. If the group was healthy, he'd likely pitch much less than he has. His hard hit rate is in the Bottom 25% of baseball, his exit velocity is in the Bottom 10%, and this all compounds with a whiff rate that is among the worst for starting pitchers. With that in mind, a few matchups may be worse for Schmidt tonight.
I'm not sure it feels like it to the general public, but the Rangers have done enough to confidently say that they have staying power and one of the most potent offenses in baseball.
The Rangers lead the league in runs per game by a comfortable margin. While that's likely to regress at least some this season, it's tough to imagine it happens in this matchup. Why? Simply because of the point above. Schmidt finds too many bats. The Rangers lead the league in runs, and they also lead it in BABIP, and for me, that makes tonight's analysis pretty simple. I projected the Rangers to score just over five runs tonight. That seems safe, considering the direct strength-on-weakness combo we have.
On the other side, I don't think we'll need a huge contribution from the Yankees, but the possibility is there. Dane Dunning, at least in some ways, is a ticking time bomb. The metrics surrounding his game just aren't sustainable for some of the results we've seen him produce.
It is tough to evaluate this Yankees offense at the moment with seesaw results, injuries, and starters like Giancarlo Stanton in horrific stretches. However, you can safely say that New York hits among the fewest ground balls of any team in the sport. Naturally, you expect them to have at least some success against a ground-ball pitcher.
From a projection and matchup standpoint, the Over is the best bet for me. I'll be grabbing it confidently.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (+100 at bet365)
Rangers vs Yankees same-game parlay
Over 8.5
Seager Over 1.5 total bases
Schmidt not to record a win
Anchoring my same-game parlay for tonight is the Over 8.5. We expect runs to be plentiful with two suspect pitchers on the mound in conditions suitable for hitting. Those tie in directly to the other two legs here. While that does mean we won't get the most significant multiplier, it also means all three of these legs have a good chance of hitting if one does.
Corey Seager has had a sensational start to this season and would be at the top of virtually any hitting leaderboard you could look at if he had enough attempts to qualify. Because of the matchup, I'm taking him at plus money to go over his total bases.
While he has had few looks against the sweeper this season (the primary pitch of Schmidt), he is one of the best breaking-ball hitters on the Rangers roster. I'll take a chance on that prop based on the hot-hitting streak Seager has been on.
Lastly, we're finishing this off with Schmidt not recording a win. This feels like the easiest portion of this SGP. We talked a ton about the matchup specifics in this game for Schmidt. Still, even without that, he has failed to go the required length to qualify for a win in two of his last three games against a high-end offense. We'll ride that trend to continue to cap this one off.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rangers vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I'm leaning toward the Rangers in this spot, but I'm holding off a pregame bet.
There's a considerable pitching edge for Texas tonight. In addition, I think the lineup and offense are better than what the Yankees can offer now. The stats bear that out, and this can essentially be simplified to one of the best offenses in baseball facing a very inconsistent one.
The hesitation here is the looming regression that Dunning is set to meet. I will watch if this Yankees team is putting the ball in the air. If they struggle to do so, I'll look at grabbing Texas live.
We're in strong support of the Over tonight. After reading our best bet section, there's ample support for it based on our matchup. The trends follow accordingly.
The Over has hit in four straight games where the Rangers faced a right-handed starter. In addition, the Over is 7-0 in their last seven games, all in the 7.5 to 8.5 range. Not to be outdone, eight of the last nine Yankees games have gone Over when facing a team with a record over .500. All signs point to runs being scored tonight in the Bronx.
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Trend to know
The Over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers' last five road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees
Rangers vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, June 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, YES |
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.65 ERA): Schmidt has been a pitcher without much secret, meaning the numbers paint a fairly accurate picture. His expected FIP and ERA align, and his expected ERA lines up closely with his actual results. To put it plainly, Schmidt has had issues finding too many bats this season. His whiff rate is near the bottom of the league, and that's bad for a pitcher who hasn't induced much soft contact. He'll come into this game off an appearance against the Boston Red Sox, where he went just over four innings and gave up two earned runs. That's about what's been an average appearance for Schmidt this season.
Dane Dunning (6-1, 2.78 ERA): The case of Dane Dunning can follow a similar path to Bryce Elder for the Atlanta Braves. He's another ground ball-reliant pitcher with bad metrics and an expected ERA well above his surface-level numbers. The metrics could be better, too. Dunning has an anemic whiff rate, and batters are making hard contact when they hit him. It is a matter of time before we see some serious negative regression from Dunning. He's coming into today off another solid performance against the Toronto Blue Jays, where he gave up two earned runs in six innings.
