It’s Thursday — or as I like to affectionately call it, Friday Eve — and there’s plenty of baseball gracing our television screens. One intriguing matchup pitches the Texas Rangers against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a deciding Game 3 of the series.
The home team is a heavy favorite on the moneyline (-190) according to MLB odds, while the total resides at 8.5.
Rangers vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has been masterful lately, surrendering a total of five earned runs across his last five starts (30 IP) to lower his ERA to 3.05. Give him his flowers now, because I don’t think this newfound effectiveness will last long.
He last finished a season with an ERA below 4.15 back in 2019, when all of his 73 appearances came out of the bullpen. The projection systems all predict his ERA to finish somewhere between 4.48 and 4.67 this year, which seems like a more accurate reflection of his skillset than his current, unsustainable ERA.
The 32-year-old’s underlying numbers are worrisome. His 4.66 xEA, 4.69 FIP, and 4.58 xFIP are directly in line with last year’s statistics. He doesn’t make batters miss (26th percentile chase rate, 27th percentile K-rate) and his 9.3% swinging strike rate is the lowest it has been since 2018.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be ready to deal out some hard-hitting regression. They’ve posted a 120 wRC+ (third) and a .335 wOBA (also third) against right-handed pitching on the season. It helps to be the hottest team in baseball as well — across the last 15 days, Dave Roberts’ squad leads the majors in wRC+ (148) and wOBA (.376).
The home team will go with Michael Grove operating as an opener for what will be a bullpen game. This will be the fourth time the Dodgers have used an opener this season. They’ve succeeded with this approach thus far, winning each of the previous three games while surrendering just 2.3 runs per game.
The Dodgers are one of two teams (along with the Guardians) with a bullpen ERA below 3.00. They’ve been stellar (2.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and should be fully stocked — according to Roberts, all arms will be available other than Anthony Banda.
L.A. had covered three straight run lines at home before yesterday’s 3-2 nailbiting loss. I see Big Blue getting back on track here with an advantage both at the plate and on the mound.
Rangers vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 walks allowed
Shohei Ohtani has broken out of his slump, collecting a hit in seven of his last eight games while homering three times. He’s knocked one out of the park in each of the first two games of the series and has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three straight games.
Lorenzen struggled with his command, walking 4.3 batters per nine innings. He ranks 97th among 118 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings in Location+ (98) and that could be an issue against a patient Dodgers lineup. L.A. leads the MLB in BB% (11.8%) across the last 15 days and has the highest BB% (10.4%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Dodgers odds
Rangers vs Dodgers live odds
Rangers vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-105) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Texas +185 | Los Angeles -225
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rangers vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers have been a losing team on the road (16-18) while the Dodgers have been a tough out at home (22-13).
- The Rangers have played to the Under (26-40 O/U) this year while the Dodgers have been dead even against the total (34-34 O/U).
- They tend to lose when Lorenzen takes the mound and is 1-7 in his last eight starts. They're also 0-5 O/U in his last five starts.
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Rangers vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have covered the run line in 11 of their last 17 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Dodgers
Rangers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southwest, Spectrum SportsNet LA |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 2.96 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Michael Grove (4-2, 4.72 ERA) |
Rangers vs Dodgers latest injuries
Rangers vs Dodgers weather
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