Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bieber Just Incredible in Return to Action

Prop bet #1: Fade Abbott

This number has been inflated because of what happened the last time Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott faced the Pittsburgh Pirates. It came in mid-June, and Abbott struck out 10 Pirate batters. However, that was the first time in their career many of those players had ever faced Abbott. In addition to that, he's gone Under this number in six straight starts and eight of his last nine. 

Many aspects of this matchup point to a low strikeout total. Pittsburgh ranks last in chase rate and has the third-lowest swing rate in the sport.

Abbott is a heavy fastball thrower, as it makes up the highest percentage of his pitching arsenal by far. This is another knock against Abbott in this spot, as the Pirates have been striking out at the league's third-lowest rate against the fastball over the last month.

Andrew Abbott prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130)

Prop bet #2: Bieber bosses Baltimore

Talk about an off-market price. The next-best Shane Bieber odds in the strikeout market can be found at DraftKings at +115. I'd take this to +105, which is undoubtedly a grab at +130. The Biebs will enter this matchup having eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in five of his last six starts, along with two of his last three appearances against the Baltimore Orioles.

Bieber is another fastball-heavy pitcher, with those velocity pitches making up just over 50% of his pitching arsenal. His K-rate has fallen this season compared to his career numbers, mostly because he's gotten less chase than ever. However, he's leaned on his off-speed pitches as put-out pitches, and the slider has delivered in a big way. It's produced at a whiff rate nearing 40%, and the effectiveness of that pitch is the key here.

The Os hit that pitch well but also strike out against it a great deal. Depending on the lineup they roll out tonight, there could be up to six players with a whiff rate above league average against that pitch.

The key for Bieber will be getting into strikeout counts. If he can do that successfully, this has a great chance of hitting.

Shane Bieber prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)

Prop bet #3: Sick Burnes

This ultimately had the highest probability of hitting of these three selections with an implied number of just over 60%. I love Corbin Burnes' matchup tonight against a Miami Marlins team that has scored two or fewer runs in the first six innings of its games for three straight.

Burnes should dominate this Marlins team. He's put up some of the best numbers of his career, and what should help him here is his nasty curveball that has produced an opponent batting average of just .128, along with a whiff rate of nearly 50%. That's a problem for Miami, as they hit breaking pitches as poor as anyone in baseball. Of course, Luis Arraez hits it well, but outside of that, Miami will roll out a lineup with up to six players with a negative run value against that pitch.

On the other side of things, the handicap isn't very complicated. I'm banking on Burnes to get to six or seven innings while allowing two or fewer runs, and for a Milwaukee Brewers offense that has played well recently to break through for more than that. I love this prop at plus-money tonight.

Corbin Burnes prop: To record a win (+110 at DraftKings)