Gavin Lux has been red-hot lately and my favorite MLB player props for today are counting on him to keep mashing. See why I'm also backing Braves slugger Austin Riley and Twins starter Bailey Ober with my MLB picks for Saturday, August 3.
MLB props for August 3
- Riley Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
- Ober Under 4.5 hits allowed (+130 at bet365)
- Lux Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Austin Riley Over 1.5 total bases
Austin Riley is having a bit of a down year, slugging .455. That said, his home/away (slugging .494 at Truist Park) and reverse platoon splits (.476 against righties) indicate he's in a good spot today.
He's also picked things up after a slow start to the year, slashing .283/.346/.540 since the start of June. That positive regression makes plenty of sense when you consider that the two-time Silver Slugger recipient ranks in the Top 10th percentile in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Tonight, Riley and the Atlanta Braves are hosting the Miami Marlins, who are starting mediocre right-hander Kyle Tyler (4.74 ERA with a 5.05 xERA through 24 2/3 innings). With THE BAT X projecting 2.4 total bases for Riley tonight, back the Over 1.5 at close to a pick'em price.
Prop bet #2: Bailey Ober Under 4.5 hits allowed
The Minnesota Twins are sending Bailey Ober to the mound today against the Chicago White Sox. Ober has a modest 3.76 ERA through 20 starts but his OBA (.212) and WHIP (1.01) are better indicators of how hard he's been to hit against.
The White Sox have been historically bad this year and they rank dead-last in the majors in batting average (.217). They've been slightly less effective against right-handers batting .214 and they've somehow become even worse since the All-Star break hitting just .194.
Ober is coming off a sensational outing against the Tigers where he allowed just one hit through eight innings of shutout ball. He's allowed fewer than 4.5 hits in five of his last six starts, which makes this prop tough to turn down at plus money.
Prop bet #3: Gavin Lux Over 1.5 total hits + runs +RBI
Gavin Lux has changed his approach at the dish recently and it's paid off. The former top prospect missed all of last year with ACL and LCL injuries and while he was tentative to start this season, he's been more aggressive lately.
Since the All-Star break, Lux is slashing .421/.500/.790 and has made massive gains on his barrel rate and exit velocity. That improvement has seen Lux move from the bottom half of the lineup to the third spot today against the Oakland A's.
Oakland is giving the pill to righty Mitch Spence who has a 4.47 ERA and sits in the Bottom 20th percentile in exit velocity and the Bottom 30th percentile in hard hit rate. With Lux boasting the platoon advantage against Spence take the Over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBI for the Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman.
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