It's Monday, and that means a short slate on the MLB schedule.
No worries, though, as I have a trio of MLB player props ready and waiting. I'm targeting two pitchers who won't be long for their starts and an outfielder ready to pounce on a generally reliable hurler on Monday, September 16.
MLB props for September 16
- Joey Estes Under 16.5 outs (-109 at Caesars)
- Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 outs (-103 at Caesars)
- Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 total bases (+155 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Joey Estes Under 16.5 outs recorded
Oakland A's right-hander Joey Estes doesn't typically overpower opponents, pitching to contact and letting his defense to do the work behind him. He has a bit of a leash, too, only occasionally throwing more than 90 pitches in a start. He hasn't hit the 100-pitch plateau once in 2024.
He's generally been more susceptible to getting hit around when pitching on the road, with opposing batters owning a .286/.341/.527 slash line when Estes is the away pitcher compared to .199/.235/.358 slash line in Oakland.
The Chicago Cubs sport above-average offensive numbers with solid pop and good splits against righties. Lefty hitters Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, and Ian Happ each boast a wRC+ above 116 while Seiya Suzuki — a righty — leads the team with a 138 wRC+.
With warm weather hitting Wrigley Field, the ball could be flying today, further limiting Estes' exposure.
Covers Player Prop projections powered by The BAT have Estes pegged for 14.6 outs on the day, which puts the number Under by a decent enough margin for my MLB picks.
Prop bet #2: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 outs recorded
Unlike Estes, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly is often allowed to throw a ton of pitches in any given start, but I have a couple of reasons why I can comfortably fade him to pitch six full innings tonight.
First off, he left his most recent start after four innings due to a hamstring cramp. He's been cleared to pitch tonight but any injury concern is worth considering when handicapping a pitcher's performance. I wouldn't be surprised if the D-Backs treat him with baby gloves at first.
Second, he doesn't miss bats. He can occasionally rack up strikeouts, but more often than not he's inducing contact and hoping for the best. Kelly has allowed six or more hits in four of his six starts since coming off the IL.
Third, allowing a lot of contact doesn't play well at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies are a wildly pathetic baseball club, but they can still string hits together on occasion.
I considered going with Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365) because of this matchup for similar reasons but want to target Kelly as long as he's pitching to more middling results in unfriendly atmospheres.
Prop bet #3: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 total bases
No venue is expected to have hotter temperatures for today's slate than Kauffman Stadium. This will benefit Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter, who got a day off on Sunday and should be back in the heart of the lineup tonight against Kansas City Royals righty Seth Lugo.
While Lugo has had a strong season that will net him down-ballot Cy Young votes, he does not strike opponents out and can allow hits to pile up.
Kauffman is a hitter-friendly venue, too, though not necessarily for home runs. The outfield gaps are notable, giving Carpenter a prime opportunity to find the alley.
At +155, this is a value play but Carpenter holds the platoon advantage and can capitalize on hitter-friendly weather even if Lugo otherwise limits scoring.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
