A delectable Friday slate is upon us, and I have a few plays that should satisfy those cravings, as we are diving into a loaded menu of props and a few spicy sprinkles across this piece.
Tonight, we will be eyeing Jack Flaherty, Kyle Schwarber, and Shea Langeliers in what could be a profitable evening at the diamond in our MLB player props.
Let's get into our MLB picks for May 22.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jack Flaherty |
Over 2.5 Walks | -110 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | +100 |
 Shea Langeliers |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -115 |
Jack Flaherty Over 2.5 Walks (-110)
A prop I have been monitoring over the last few weeks has become one of my favorite sweats. Sure, I am 1-1 so far taking the over on Jack Flaherty walks, and sure, he had none the last time I was on the prop.
However, the first time, he walked three guys in his first 39 pitches. The Detroit Tigers right-hander owns an 18.4% walk rate on the road this season, allowing 3.6 walks per road outing.
Meanwhile, on the other side, the Baltimore Orioles have six hitters with at least a 7.7% walk rate. Zoom in a little more, and four guys own a walk rate of 11.1% or higher. Overall, as a team, they sport a 10.3% walk rate, tied for 10th in baseball.
If trying to find the zone on the road is Flaherty's kryptonite, I want to continue taking the over on his walks, especially away from home. I'd pass on this prop if you have to pay juice. Look for a book offering plus money, as the risk outweighs laying any extra vig.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: AppleTV
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+100)
We will be going to the bank twice today, first to Citizens Bank Park, then to our personal banks to deposit our winnings (hopefully), as Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber finds himself in a great spot this evening against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams. The Phillies designated hitter owns the highest hitter rating in this matchup, per Batters-Box.
In 96 elite ratings at home, Schwarber has produced incredible trends, recording at least a hit 64.58% of the time and cashing this prop 56.25% of the time. The slugger has also surpassed 2+ HRR in eight of his last 10 elite ratings.
Left-handed hitters have given Williams hell this season, as he has allowed a ton of hard contact and plenty of home runs, nine through 10 starts. On top of that, against the last 60 lefties he has faced, the right-hander owns a 1.93 HR/9, while those hitters sport a .685 xSLG.
If you are able to find Schwarber's hit prop below -150 and you are in the juice-paying business, take it. However, only take his HRR prop if you can get it at plus money. His hit prices are surprisingly low this evening.
Also, do not be afraid to sprinkle on the big fella to leave the yard today either, as he homers 35.42% of the time at home when carrying an elite rating.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CleGuardians.TV, NBCSP
Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115)
We are ending the evening with a BANG, a Shea Langeliers bang, by taking the over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI prop this evening against San Diego Padres right-hander Walker Buehler, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the day on Batters-Box.
The Padres starter also has poorly rated average hitter matchup numbers in wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage.
Over his last couple starts, Buehler has allowed right-handed hitters to make a ton of hard contact and elevate the baseball, posting just a 34.9% ground ball rate over the last 60 right-handed hitters faced.
The Athletics star catcher owns the third-highest elite rating in this matchup. In 16 elite ratings away from home, Langeliers has produced strong trends:
- 1+ Hit: 62.5%
- 1+ RBI: 56.25%
- 2+ HRR: 50%
- Home Run: 31.25%
Langeliers also owns the third-highest arsenal coverage on the day among elite-rated hitters, crushing nearly 75% of Buehler's offerings. On top of that, he has been terrorizing right-handed pitching this season, owning a 16.19% barrel rate.
With how strong the percentage changes are for the Athletics slugger, I also sprinkled on his home run prop as well. If you cannot find a number hovering around -115 for his HRR, take his bases prop at plus money.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Padres.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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