If low-scoring nailbiters are your thing, this series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs hasn’t been short on drama, with all three games so far being decided by a single run.
Dansby Swanson’s homer keyed Chicago’s 2-1 win yesterday, but my Pirates vs Cubs predictions signal more offense today as both starting pitchers arrive in shaky form.
Read on for my MLB picks and betting angles for this June 15 clash.
Pirates vs Cubs prediction
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet: Over 7.5 (-105 at Caesars)
We’ve seen a consistent script over the past few days at Wrigley Field, with pitchers dominating and hitters going ice cold.
However, there’s a twist in the air today as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs collide again — and I see the bats finally showing up to make some noise.
That’s partly a vote of no-confidence in this afternoon’s starters. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has given up 16 hits and nine runs across his past two outings, pushing his ERA up to 4.15. The Cubs have had success against him, too, with Ian Happ posting an 11-for-27 career mark against the Pirates righty and Seiya Suzuki crushing a pair of doubles.
Then there’s Chicago’s Colin Rea, who was yanked after 4 1/3 innings in his last start. Rea has allowed four or more runs in three of his past four appearances, and he finished May with a 5.61 ERA. Each of his last four starts has hit the Over on a 7.5-run line, making this a value pick here.
While both teams have trended towards the Under across their last 10 games, a larger sample size suggests the Cubs are a run machine. The hosts sit second in the majors with 382 runs, and only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox have served up more hits.
On the flipside, it’s hard to sugarcoat the Pirates’ struggles — and their 29-43 record is telling — but they did score 17 runs in their series with the Miami Marlins earlier this week.
The Over is 34-29 for Chicago this season, and that’s where I’m looking for my best bet here.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Cubs moneyline
Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 RBI
The Cubs have won five of their past seven matchups against the Pirates, and I’m taking the hosts’ moneyline this afternoon. Chicago is 22-12 at Wrigley Field this year, while Pittsburgh is an ugly 10-24 on the road.
If that wasn’t enough, Keller drags a rough 1-9 record into today’s contest. With the Cubs averaging 5.38 runs per game this season, the Pirates will be hard pressed to keep pace, and I see the hosts padding their lead at the top of the NL Central with a more efficient day at the plate.
Nico Hoerner isn’t likely to hammer the ball into the stands — still in search of his first dinger of the year — but he continues to be a top-tier contact hitter in this Chicago lineup.
I’m buying into his solid .288 batting average, and he’s piled up seven hits across his last five outings, including an RBI double against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday.
Hoerner does his best work against righties, where he’s driven in 23 of his 29 RBI, and he’s logged two doubles against Keller in prior meetings.
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
Pirates vs Cubs live odds
Pirates vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +145 | Chicago -170
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155) | Chicago -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Pirates vs Cubs trend
The Pirates have only cashed the F5 innings moneyline in 22 of their last 68 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.
How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, 6-15-2025 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, MARQ |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (1-9, 4.15 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Colin Rea (4-2, 3.92 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
Pirates vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
