Three of the four Wild Card Series ended in a two-game sweep, leaving our MLB expert picks with one game to cover on Thursday, Oct. 1.
That's quite all right, as our analysts have a bevy of MLB picks at the ready ahead of tonight's 8 p.m. start at Truist Park in Atlanta.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Over 7.5 |
49% |
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
51% |
 Neil Parker: Matt Olson o1.5 TB |
47% |
 Dustin Saracini: YRFI |
48% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Over 7.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
Let's back some more runs in the do-or-die game.
Managers struggle to get out of their own way and seem to make moves with starting pitching too early. Both bullpens are taxed, and all three of the Atlanta Braves' best high-leverage arms will likely be pitching for a third straight day, while the Philadelphia Phillies are scared to use their relievers. Closer Jhoan Duran is also a scary option after blowing Game 1.
THE BAT is projecting more than 10 runs at Truist Park on a warm day and has this at a fair price around 66%. The Braves have seen a ton of Aaron Nola (who is expected to pitch, though no official starter has been announced), and Grant Holmes might not even start.
Ethan Diamandas has a full breakdown of the game in his Phillies vs. Braves predictions.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
In a winner-take-all Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, I'm backing the Braves at 51% on Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 54% favorite.
For me, this matchup comes down to the Braves' familiarity with Nola. We all know that the more a hitter sees a pitcher, the more of an advantage it can become, and the Braves have multiple players with 40-plus at-bats against the veteran right-hander.
Ozzie Albies, for example, has faced him 79 times. There's no mystery about how Nola will attack these hitters, and he has very little room for error when his fastball sits around 91-92 mph.
The Phillies' defense also concerns me in a pressure-packed, winner-take-all game. We saw that in Game 2 with Bryce Harper playing right field.
At 51%, the Braves are the side to back.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
The Phillies are expected to send Nola to the hill during an “all-hands-on-deck” pitching approach, and that’s lovely news for Braves star Matt Olson.
Olson sports a monster .451 wOBA and .418 ISO against Nola across 54 career plate appearances, and the Atlanta first baseman is just 1-for-8 despite a 60% hard-hit rate in the series.
Expect Olson to leave his mark on Game 3 tonight, with this Over in play to 50%.
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Run in the first inning — Yes
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
This has cashed in both games in this series, and the top three hitters in both lineups can manufacture early runs.
With Nola likely getting the ball for Philadelphia, he might be in for a buzzsaw. Ronald Acuna Jr. is 20-for-59 (.339) against the seasoned vet with four home runs in his career, while cleanup hitter Olson has had similar success (.418 ISO — shoutout to Neil).
On the other side, we've seen what Harper and Kyle Schwarber can do. They single-handedly saved the Phillies' season.
Let's see some runs early.
How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Thursday, October 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Phillies starting pitcher | TBD |
| Braves starting pitcher | TBD |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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