The Tampa Bay Lightning are road favorites over the New York Rangers ahead of their 7 p.m. ET puck drop at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, Oct. 1.
My top Lightning vs. Rangers prediction and NHL picks call for Tampa handing New York a second consecutive loss to open the season tonight.
TOP PICK
Lightning vs Rangers prediction: Lightning moneyline
The Tampa Bay Lightning's roster continuity gives the veteran-heavy lineup a notable depth edge in their season opener against the New York Rangers, and I’d recommend this Tampa moneyline to 60%.
Tampa Bay finished third in Corsi For percentage and fourth in expected goals percentage (xGF%) at 5-on-5 last season, while New York was 20th and 22nd, respectively.
It wasn't pretty for the Blueshirts in their season opener, either, as New York lost the possession battle with a 45.8 CF% at 5-on-5 and an overall 43.5 xGF% during its 3-0 loss to the Bruins.
I expect the ice to be tilted against the Rangers again tonight, with the Lightning storming to their first win of the year.
COVERS INTEL: The Rangers had a crippling 38.6 Corsi For percentage and 34.9 xGF% at 5-on-5 when their top defensive pair of Adam Fox and Vladislav Gavrikov weren’t on the ice during their season opener.
Lightning vs Rangers combo
Goaltending is a strength of both teams, and Rangers No. 1 Igor Shesterkin was solid to start the year with a .909 save percentage and 0.62 goals saved above expected.
I’m also anticipating more of the same from Lightning star Andrei Vasilevskiy after he finished fourth in the league with 40.66 GSAx last year.
Additionally, the Rangers' failure to score on opening night aligns with their offense finishing 23rd in goals per game last season.
The final leg of this combo turns to Pavel Dorofeyev. The prized offseason acquisition recorded five shots on six attempts against Boston on Tuesday, and he finished the 2025-26 campaign in the Top 25 in both shots and attempts per 60 minutes.
Lightning vs Rangers combo
- Lightning moneyline
- Under 5.5
- Pavel Dorofeyev 3+ shots
Lightning vs Rangers player prop: Pavel Dorofeyev 3+ shots
In addition to the highlight case for Dorofeyev, his line with J.T. Miller and Oliver Bjorkstrand finished the opener with a 66.7 CF% and 68.8% shot share at 5-on-5.
Dorofeyev was also the only Ranger to record a shot with the man advantage, so I recommend this Over to 55%.
Lightning vs Rangers goal scorer: Brayden Point
The veteran scored 139 goals with a 21.4 shooting percentage across 240 games from 2022-23 through 2024-25 before dipping to just 18 tallies and a 14.0 SH% while battling injuries last year.
Brayden Point is fully healthy, and he spent the offseason aiming to “increase the scoring zone.” So, with the proven scorer set to play with superstar Nikita Kucherov in all offensive situations, Point is a go-to target in this market.
I’d recommend him to score up to 33%.
- Top picks: 4-2, +2.55 units
- Combos: 1-1, +2.5 units
Lightning vs Rangers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Lightning 57% | Rangers 44%
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (56%) | Under 5.5 (46%)
- Spread: Lightning -1.5 (34%) | Rangers +1.5 (67%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Lightning vs Rangers trend
The Lightning have hit the Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Lightning vs Rangers
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, N.Y. |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | The Spot, MSG |
Lightning vs Rangers latest injuries
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