The San Diego Padres are priced as 59% moneyline favorites tonight against the Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.
With Singer struggling and Michael King finding his best lately, my Padres vs Reds predictions confidently back San Diego.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31.
Who will win Padres vs Reds today: Padres (59%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Michael King gives the San Diego Padres the more trustworthy starting point tonight. The right-hander has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while allowing just 0.66 HR/9 and holding opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate.
That profile gives him a clear edge over Cincinnati Reds righty Brady Singer, who owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span while allowing 1.54 HR/9 and an alarming 53.8% hard-hit rate.
San Diego has not been in great offensive form, but this matchup still creates value. King’s steadier profile and Singer’s recent contact issues make the Padres the cleaner side.
Play this pick up to 62%.
COVERS INTEL: Singer has also had issues at home this season, posting a 5.57 FIP. On the road, that number sits at 4.76. 
Padres vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (55%)
With the total sitting at 9.5, the Under presents value tonight.
Despite Singer’s recent vulnerability, San Diego isn't in the kind of offensive form where I expect a full-on explosion. Cincinnati’s bullpen has also been poor, but the Padres would likely need to do most of the damage to push this Over.
The Reds have been respectable offensively lately, posting a 115 wRC+ over the last week, but they still draw a tough matchup against King. San Diego’s relief corps is also dealing, with a 3.17 xERA over the last week and minimal home run damage.
This number feels a bit high.
Play this pick up to 60%.
Padres vs Reds home run prediction: Sal Stewart (18%)
Sal Stewart cannot be stopped right now. He's clubbed four home runs in his last six games while posting a .500 ISO during that span.
Obviously, the matchup here doesn't have a ton of value, but Stewart has a 60% fly-ball rate over the last week, and King has allowed 40% of his contact through the air over his previous two starts.
The Padres' pen has also given up 1.17 HR/9 in its last 23 frames. Stewart's 25% barrel rate recently strengthens this play. One mistake could leave the yard.
Play up to 20%.
- ML/RL bets: 61-72, -19.23 units
- Over/Under bets: 72-57, +3.75 units
Padres vs Reds weather
Weather at Great American Ball Park looks warm and clear tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 92°F to 84°F. Rain chances sit at just 2%, and winds ease from about 7 mph to 3 mph. No delay concern, and the heat could slightly help carry.
Padres vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Padres 59% | Reds 42%
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (46%) | Reds +1.5 (55%)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (46%) | Under 9.5 (55%)
Padres vs Reds trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the game total Under in 25 of their last 45 home games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Reds.
How to watch Padres vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Monday, Aug. 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, Reds.TV |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (8-9, 3.23 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Brady Singer (5-12, 4.72 ERA) |
Padres vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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