The first two games of this four-game set between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants have been thrilling extra-inning affairs, with the Friars getting the best of their National League West rivals in both.
With Nick Pivetta on the mound in Game 3, my Padres vs. Giants predictions explain why there is value with San Diego to take a 3-0 lead in this series.
Check out my MLB picks for this NL West showdown, with first pitch scheduled to be thrown at Oracle Park at 9:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, June 4.
Padres vs Giants prediction
My Padres vs Giants best bet: Padres -0.5 F5 (+125 at bet365)
The pitching has been great through the first two games of this series between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants, and we could be in for more of that in Game 3, at least from the Padres side.
That’s because San Diego hands the ball to Nick Pivetta. The 32-right-hander is dealing again after a little hiccup at the beginning of May. Pivetta is pitching to a 2.00 ERA where he is holding opponents to a .185 batting average with a strikeout rate of 31.9% over his last three starts.
And we’ve already seen the Giants struggle to score this series, plating just two runs in the first two games.
Now, San Francisco enters this game ranked 24th in batting average and OPS, and 22nd in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season. And current Giants batters have combined for a .239 expected batting average and a 34.9% strikeout rate vs. Pivetta.
Countering Pivetta is Kyle Harrison. The 23-year-old left-hander is making just his third start of the season.
While the first two have been solid, allowing just two runs on six hits over nine innings, those came against the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Pads lineup should prove a little more difficult. Not only that, if he qualified his 4.44 xERA and .255 xBA would both be well below league average.
The Padres have been above average vs. lefties this season ranking 14th in OPS and wRC+.
San Diego has a clear edge on the mound in this game. I expect Pivetta to tie up the slumping Giants lineup, which has scored three runs or fewer in nine of its last 10 games, in knots. The Pads should be able to do some damage against Harrison, allowing the road team to carry the lead through five innings.
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Padres vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -0.5 F5
Matt Chapman Under 0.5 hits
Wilmer Flores Under 0.5 hits
This same-game parlay is just going to continue the theme that this Giants lineup is going to struggle tonight. The two Giants hitters who have had the most trouble with Pivetta in their careers are Matt Chapman and Wilmer Flores.
Chapman has faced Pivetta a lot thanks to their respective time in the American League. Twenty-eight times in fact. Chapman has just five hits and has struck out 12 times. That’s a .181 xBA and a 42.9% strikeout rate.
Flores hasn’t faced Pivetta as much but it hasn’t been any better. He’s just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts. And despite the hit, he has a .020 xBA against him.
I’m taking both guys to put up a donut in the hit column tonight.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants live odds
Padres vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | San Francisco -110
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-225) | San Francisco -1.5 (+185)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Giants trend
The Giants have hit the Under in 15 of their last 16 games for +13.80 Units and a 78% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, NBCSBA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (6-2, 2.74 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (1-1, 2.51 ERA) |
Padres vs Giants latest injuries
Padres vs Giants weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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