Two projected National League powerhouses square off tonight when the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves finish off a four-game set on Sunday Night Baseball.
Atlanta has lost two of the first three games and will look for the series split by sending Dylan Dodd to the mound. The rookie southpaw had a strong MLB debut five days ago, although he did not rack up many strikeouts.
I'm expecting another low number of punchouts from Dodd tonight, and I'll explain why in my MLB free picks for Padres vs. Braves tonight... while also breaking down the MLB odds for both the moneyline and total.
Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves predictions
Dylan Dodd had a fantastic MLB debut for the Atlanta Braves, giving up just one run on six hits over five innings against St. Louis. He registered just three strikeouts in that outing, and I'm expecting a similarly low output tonight against the San Diego Padres.
The Cardinals are not an easy team to punch out, currently having the second-lowest K rate in the Majors against lefties (albeit the sixth-fewest plate appearances), but the Padres have also been tough nuts to crack for southpaws, posting the sixth-most PAs against LHP... and the sixth-lowest strikeout rate (16%).
Dodd also primarily flashed just two pitches in his MLB debut, a slider in the low-80s and a fastball in the 92-94 mph range, and his slider is the key to his success. He got a 42% whiff rate on it against the Cardinals, along with a 47.1% chase rate and 24.2% swinging strike percentage, but his fastball was very hittable — so his path to strikeouts will again require his slider to be exceptional.
I'm banking against that tonight, and going Under his strikeout total of 3.5, which is available at +125.
Those odds give us a 44.4% implied probability of this happening, but I like those odds considering the lefty didn't strike many batters out in Spring Training (20 in 18 innings), he had seven strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings in his only career appearance above Double-A last year, and with a little bit of MLB tape now on him, the Padres will be just a touch more prepared than St. Louis was.
Dodd's scouting report notes that he is far more reliant on command than pure swing-and-miss stuff, and while that can be a good recipe for a successful evening to help your team win... it's not going to do him any favors for piling up Ks.
My best bet: Dylan Dodd Under 3.5 strikeouts (+125)
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Padres vs Braves moneyline analysis
This line opened with the host Braves as slim -111 favorites, and the line movement has favored Atlanta ever-so-slightly, with them now sitting at -115 as of 3:30 p.m. ET.
After winning the series opener with a dramatic three-run rally in the final two innings, Atlanta dropped the next two games as the offense struggled to deliver a key hit, going just 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position and stranding 17 runners on base — a stark contrast from the .296 average with RISP the Braves had heading into Friday's action.
Those losses were just the second and third of the year for Atlanta, while the wins got the Padres back above .500 (5-4), as the offense continues to sputter.
Despite doing a good job at limiting strikeouts and sitting tied for sixth in home runs, the Padres are just 25th in batting average and 17th in runs scored, while sitting in the middle of the pack in ERA and WHIP.
Dodd may have had an impressive debut for Atlanta, but San Diego is also encouraged by Seth Lugo's Padres debut, as the former reliever threw seven strong innings, posting the best outing by a Padres SP so far this season.
Padres vs Braves Over/Under analysis
It may not be the sexiest names on the mound, but both Lugo and Dodd looked more than effective in giving up two combined runs over 12 innings in their respective 2023 debuts.
Tonight's matchup currently has a total of 9.0, a number that Atlanta has gone Over just twice in its first nine games, while the Friars have reached double-digit runs just thrice in this early season.
The Braves are a little more proficient offensively so far when compared to San Diego, but Atlanta did rack up 14 runs in its first two games of the season against Washington, almost half of the 30 runs it has mustered in the seven games since (4.3 per game).
Padres vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, April 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Padres vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Seth Lugo (1-0, 1.29 ERA): A longtime reliever for the New York Mets, Lugo came to San Diego in the offseason with the intention of being a starter. He threw 93 pitches in his SD debut, giving up just one run on four hits over seven innings, with seven Ks, against the Colorado Rockies. The righty is mainly a fastball/curveball guy, but also throws a slider, sinker, and changeup, and while his first outing showed a higher average FB velocity and overall chase rate than his career norms, he did also have a higher contact rate and lower whiff rate.
Dylan Dodd (1-0, 1.80 ERA): Working strictly as a slider/fastball guy (just three of his 73 pitches vs. St. Louis were changeups), Dodd got the Cardinals to chase his slider time and time again and he gave up just one run on six hits over five innings. As mentioned above, he won't be a strikeout-heavy pitcher, but the Cards also hit .300 against his fastball — he needs to be better with his only other pitch if he wants sustained success at this level.
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San Diego is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Atlanta. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves
