Last night's scheduled game between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox was rained out and will take place on Friday afternoon as the first game in a double-header.
Boston has swapped pitchers from Lucas Giolito to Brayan Bello, and that along with a change in the wind in Beantown has me backing the Over in my Orioles vs. Red Sox predictions.
Here are my free MLB picks for this AL East showdown on May 23, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET at Fenway Park.
Orioles vs Red Sox prediction
My Orioles vs Red Sox best bet: Over 9 (-120 at Sports Interaction)
The Boston Red Sox were going to start Lucas Giolito yesterday but have decided to move him to tonight's contest, with Brayan Bello getting the nod the early game. The right-hander is in the bottom 10th percentile in expected ERA (5.59) and expected batting average (.302)
The Baltimore Orioles respond with lefty Cade Povich, who has a 5.23 ERA with an xERA of 5.84 across eight starts.
The Red Sox are seventh in the majors in OPS (.743) with that number ticking up to .776 against southpaws. The Orioles have struggled to hit lefties, but have been productive against righties like Bello, posting an OPS of .735.
Both lineups strike out at extremely high rates but when they make contact, they crush the ball. The O's are seventh in barrel rate, and fourth in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. The BoSox are in the Top-3 in all three of those metrics.
Given that neither starting pitcher generate many whiffs, we should see plenty of offense. In addition, while we had 20 mph winds blowing towards the infield last night, it's now projected at 9 mph towards the outfield.
Orioles vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9
Ryan O'Hearn 1+ hits
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 walks
Ryan O'Hearn leads Baltimore with a batting average of .306 and his xBA of .305, indicates that number is sustainable long-term. He's batting .323 this month and will have the platoon advantage against Bello.
Povich has walked 11 batters over his last five starts, and Baltimore's relievers have really struggled with control (91 walks through 182 2/3 innings). Rafael Devers is tied for second in the majors in walks (39) and has been given a free pass in 12 of his last 16 games.
Orioles vs Red Sox odds
Orioles vs Red Sox live odds
Orioles vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +105 | Boston -125
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-200) | Boston -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Orioles vs Red Sox trend
The Orioles are 1-8 in their last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Orioles vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Friday, 5-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, NESN |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Cade Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (2-1, 4.02 ERA) |
Orioles vs Red Sox latest injuries
Orioles vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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