Please, Lord, get me out of this home-run cooler. I have some of the best bats in some of the best matchups for dingers and MLB player props, at great prices.
I am not giving up on dingers in Sacramento, as it's the best park by far for home runs today, while the Cincinnati Reds will get a heavy dose of HR-friendly right-handed arms with winds aiding left-handed bats.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 27.
Best MLB home run props today
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Shea Langeliers
Nathaniel Lowe
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+346)
Let's roll with the best +EV home run prop, per the projections at Covers, in the best HR environment on the slate, according to Ballpark Pal. This is once again a great spot for dingers, with both starters ranking in the bottom 35 among starting pitchers in HR/FB rate.
Logan Gilbert has been giving up plenty of fly balls lately, carrying just a 39% groundball rate over his last five starts. His 21% HR/FB rate also ranks in the bottom 15 among starters.
Shea Langeliers has already gone yard in this series and brings a strong fly-ball profile of his own, posting a 51% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days along with the team’s best Ideal Attack Angle, per FanGraphs bat-tracking metrics.
His arrow has been pointing up all season, and now he gets a great pitching matchup, an elite hitting environment, and a home run price sitting roughly 50 points above the fair number.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Nathaniel Lowe (+610)
The projections love the Cincinnati Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup.
He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen.
Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he has led the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage.
He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Reds.TV
- HR picks: 13-94, -26.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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