Please, Lord, get me out of this home-run cooler. I have some of the best bats in some of the best matchups for dingers and MLB player props, at great prices.
Jake Burger needs to find the card at his current prices, as he is one of the hottest bats in baseball and gets one of the best hitting matchups indoors vs. the Houston Astros. Take him along with Shea Langeliers and Nathaniel Lowe, and we'll kick back and watch the fireworks.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 27.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Shea Langeliers |
+346 |
 Nathaniel Lowe |
+610 |
 Jake Burger |
+541 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +20054 |
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+346)
Let's roll with the best +EV home run prop, per the projections at Covers, in the best HR environment on the slate, according to Ballpark Pal. This is once again a great spot for dingers, with both starters ranking in the bottom 35 among starting pitchers in HR/FB rate.
Logan Gilbert has been giving up plenty of fly balls lately, carrying just a 39% groundball rate over his last five starts. His 21% HR/FB rate also ranks in the bottom 15 among starters.
Shea Langeliers has already gone yard in this series and brings a strong fly-ball profile of his own, posting a 51% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days along with the team’s best Ideal Attack Angle, per FanGraphs bat-tracking metrics.
His arrow has been pointing up all season, and now he gets a great pitching matchup, an elite hitting environment, and a home run price sitting roughly 50 points above the fair number.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Nathaniel Lowe (+610)
The projections love the Cincinnati Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat my MLB picks want from this visiting lineup.
He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen.
Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he has led the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage.
He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Reds.TV
Home run pick: Jake Burger (+541)
I'm taking another swing with Jake Burger today in an indoor setting while he’s swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball and draws a favorable matchup.
Burger is one of only five MLB hitters currently ranked inside the Top 15 in both slugging and BlastContact% over the last two weeks. He has been raking with four home runs over his last 12 games and owns the eighth-best slugging percentage in baseball during that stretch.
He’ll get a crack at Houston Astros starter Mike Burrows, who ranks in the bottom third among MLB starters in HR/FB rate while carrying a low 36% groundball rate. He is producing a lot of fly balls, and those fly balls are getting hit hard. He also isn’t missing bats and has one of the weaker home-run-suppressing bullpens behind him, with one of the highest HR/9 rates in baseball.
The fair price on this "Burger Bomb" sits around +480, per the projections at Covers.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, RSN
- HR picks: 13-94, -26.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Shea Langeliers |
Bet Now +20054 |
| Nathaniel Lowe |
|
| Jake Burger |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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