Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Ryan Mountcastle will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Mountcastle in today's matchup.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Adley Rutschman will be at a big disadvantage against Brayan Bello and his large platoon split in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adley Rutschman in today's matchup.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's game. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Ryan O'Hearn has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Kristian Campbell will have an advantage today. Kristian Campbell will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello today... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this season (24.9°) is significantly better than his 21.5° angle last season.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). Extreme groundball bats like Jackson Holliday usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today. Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Boston (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 15th-best batter in the majors when estimating his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Heston Kjerstad's BABIP skill is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Heston Kjerstad will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Heston Kjerstad has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.303) may lead us to conclude that Heston Kjerstad has experienced some negative variance this year with his .257 actual wOBA.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. The switch-hitting Nick Sogard will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Cade Povich. Nick Sogard pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage today. Nick Sogard has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.6% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last week, Carlos Narvaez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.5% up to 50%.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Ramon Urias hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ramon Urias's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (31° over the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 16.3° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Trevor Story will have an edge today. Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Jorge Mateo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an advantage in today's game. Rob Refsnyder pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have an edge in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 field in baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Connor Wong will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. With a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong is positioned in the 92nd percentile.

Ramon Laureano has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.