We've got another beautiful slate filled with plenty of great matchups for us to sink our teeth into with our MLB player props.
This afternoon, I will be diving into a few total bases props, while also sprinkling on home runs from guys like Aaron Judge, Brandon Lowe, and Julio Rodriguez.
Let's dig in with my full MLB picks for Wednesday, May 27.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Brandon Lowe |
Over 1.5 total bases | -101 |
 Julio Rodriguez |
Over 1.5 total bases | -114 |
 Aaron Judge |
Over 1.5 total bases | -112 |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 total bases (-101)
Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe is one of baseball's most reliable bats when carrying an elite rating on Batters-Box.
Through 80 elite ratings, his trends have been outstanding:
- 1+ hit: 80%
- 2+ bases: 47.5%
- Home run: 28.75%
Lowe has also surpassed 2+ bases in seven of his last elite ratings.
Tonight, he draws Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon, who brings poorly rated matchup numbers in ISO and strikeout percentage to the table. All season long, the veteran starter has allowed left-handed hitters to elevate the baseball, owning just a 25.6% ground ball rate, and over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, that number still sits at just 28.6%.
Not to mention, those lefties are making 47.6% hard contact with a 19.1% barrel rate, while Taillon owns a 4.05 HR/9 during that span.
With Lowe seeing the ball extremely well lately, sporting a .310 ISO and 18.1% barrel rate, getting this prop near plus money is mouthwatering.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (-114)
It may have been two years since the last time I placed a wager on Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez, but today is a new day, and he finds himself in an all-time spot this evening against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs.
The young star has been destroying lefties this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances against them, Rodriguez sports a .893 SLG, 1.326 OPS, and .560 wOBA, while making 54.5% hard contact with an 18.2% barrel rate.
On the other side, Springs has been getting torched by right-handed bats, carrying a 6.19 xERA and 4.98 xFIP over his last 60 batters faced, while allowing just a 32.6% ground ball rate and 2.92 HR/9. During that span, right-handed hitters own a .379 xBA, .692 xSLG, and .396 xwOBA against him.
Rodriguez also owns near 90% arsenal coverage against all of Springs’ offerings, so from top to bottom, this is a great spot for the young fella to have success at the dish.
I always mention that I am not a fan of paying juice for most props if I don't have to, but I think this spot is well worth it. At -114, this is a solid price for the matchup.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBC Sports California
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-112)
Well, you can call me a liar, because I am piling on props that require laying some juice.
However, when it comes to New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge, this is the norm. The reigning AL MVP enters with the third-highest matchup rating on the day over on Batters-Box. When elite, Judge holds some of the most appealing and trustworthy trends in baseball, especially because of the sample sizes.
In 160 elite ratings away from home, Judge records:
- 1+ hit: 71.88%
- 2+ hits: 33.31%
- 2+ total bases: 49.38%
- Home run: 30%
He has also surpassed 2+ bases in six of his last 10 elite ratings on the road.
This evening, he draws Kansas City Royals left-hander Noah Cameron, who brings poorly rated matchup numbers in strikeout percentage and ISO. Early this season, the southpaw has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing 45.9% hard contact with a 10.1% barrel rate, while opposing hitters are elevating the baseball 67.9% of the time.
Despite the sluggish start against left-handed pitching this season, Judge is still making 57.6% hard contact with a 21.2% barrel rate against southpaws. This matchup is simply too juicy to pass up.
Be sure to sprinkle his home run prop as well for a little added fun.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video, Royals.TV
- Prop picks: 160-282-26, +1.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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