Mets vs Phillies Props Picks & Best Bets for Sunday Night Baseball

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies wrap up a series with tonight's rubber match under the prime-time lights. 

In my Sunday Night Baseball player props, MLB picks, and Mets vs. Phillies predictions for Sunday, June 22, I see considerable value in backing Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso at the plate.

Mets vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball props

• Lindor 1+ RBI (+160)
• Alonso o1.5 TB (+110)
• Peterson u4.5 Ks (-105)

Mets vs Phillies props for Sunday Night Baseball

Francisco Lindor 1+ RBI (+160 at Caesars)

Francisco Lindor finally broke out last night after a five-game hitless streak, and he will carry over some of that momentum in a favorable matchup.

From the back end of the lineup, there’s reasonable hope that Lusaingel Acuna or Luis Torrens — the projected eight and nine-hole hitters — can turn the lineup over to Lindor and be on base.

Philadelphia Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo has been a quintessential average starter this season for Philly. His 4.41 ERA is somewhat unlucky, and he has some strong strikeout stuff, but he also has clear areas of weakness.

Still throwing his fastball at a high clip (over 35% on the season), it's been mostly ineffective. Opponents are hitting .330 and slugging .518 against it, with an expected batting average of over .322, which suggests that this trend will continue.

Both Acuna and Torrens have been undervalued fastball hitters on this New York Mets roster. This is most notable with Torrens, who has the second-highest expected batting average against the fastball among qualified Mets hitters. That screams positive regression is coming, which is a nice position to be in against a pitcher with a suspect heater.

Get them on base, and Lindor can cash this with ease.

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at Caesars)

I always try to take advantage of the opportunity to bet on Pete Alonso against lefties, and it holds more true lately. 

Over the last month, Alonso has a 47% hard-hit rate against southpaws, which ties him for first amongst qualified hitters. The hard-hit ball has been an issue for Luzardo, as he’ll enter this game with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 40%.

From a barrel and hard-hit rate, Alonso profiles the strongest against the heater. His patience at the plate should allow him to see a few from Luzardo, as he often turns to the heater when behind in counts. This favors Alonso.

Outside the matchup itself, the conditions at Citizens Bank Park will benefit the Polar Bear. Not only will it be hot and humid, but we will also have a nice wind whipping out to right field. Considering Alonso’s platoon split and his spray chart numbers, this will be highly advantageous for him.

David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at Caesars)

I projected 3.8 strikeouts for David Peterson today, which has me jumping at the opportunity to play this number.

The advantageous hitting conditions are certainly a factor, as well as Peterson only going 5 1/3 innings in his last start against Philly. However, that is also influenced by the season's prior results.

The Phillies have been terrific when facing southpaws, with just a 19.2% strikeout rate and a contact rate that places them fifth in the majors. Combine that with the fact that Peterson isn't a strikeout thrower, 36th percentile in whiff rate along with 41st percentile in K rate, and a clear picture emerges.

Peterson has averaged just 3.1 strikeouts per game, surpassing 3.5 only once, and his road splits show an even lower 4.8 K/9 rate. As a final feather in our cap, the Phillies have been terrific against the sinker this season — Peterson's most common pitch — with five players in the lineup slugging above the league average against it.

There are multiple paths to cashing this prop, and whether they involve an extended outing for Peterson or not, we are in a good position.

Pages related to this topic