In one of the most thrilling NBA Finals in recent memory, it comes down to who will ultimately play hero. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton?
My Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks expect SGA to step up as a facilitator, even if that doesn't seal the deal for Oklahoma City on Sunday, June 22.
Who will win Pacers vs Thunder Game 7?
Despite shooting just 41% from the field and only 36% from deep, the Indiana Pacers won decisively to force Game 7 vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder.
With the Pacers airing it out more frequently from the perimeter and shooting better away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse during this series, there is far too much value on the underdog moneyline (+250 at bet365) to ignore.
Moneyline prediction: Pacers will win (+250 at bet365)
Pacers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists (-150 at bet365)
Two pieces of the Indiana Pacers' defense shifted in Game 6, surprisingly, neither of which had to do with Tyrese Haliburton’s worrying calf. First of all, the Pacers stopped picking up Oklahoma City Thunder ballhandlers for the length of the court. In theory, that saved some energy for half-court defense, though giving a couple of seconds of the shot clock back to the Thunder.
Secondly, they double-teamed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander more often. Either Andrew Nembhard never strayed far from the MVP when he was switched off, or a double came to help Nembhard as Gilgeous-Alexander began to load up for a drive.
As a result, Gilgeous-Alexander took only 15 shots, compared to a series-low of 20 in the first five games and an average of 23.2 shots per game in the first five. Some of that was because Gilgeous-Alexander sat early in the blowout, but he still played 31 minutes. He normally would have shot more than 15 times.
Those double teams did more than get the ball out of SGA’s hands. They also took Oklahoma City out of its shooting rhythm, hitting just 8-of-30 threes (27%). The top-six players in the Thunder rotation went 1-of-14 from long range, only one of those shots coming from Gilgeous-Alexander.
With three days between Games 6 and 7, there is plenty of time to ponder that adjustment from Indiana. Expect Gilgeous-Alexander to be better prepared for that defense now, sizing it up as he comes up the court and then moving the ball when the double team comes, likely to exactly where it came from. And expect his teammates to be better prepared for those passes.
It is hardly shocking to suggest Gilgeous-Alexander will notch six assists, or even seven as is available in the milestones market at +130 at bet365. He has cleared both those numbers twice in six games in this series, along with handing out at least six assists in every game of the Western Conference Finals, topping seven in four of those five.
Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists
Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 points
Over 215
Asking for one additional assist from Gilgeous-Alexander at a payout of +130, compared to Over 5.5 at -150, is too good of value not to feature in this same-game parlay. Realize, including the more conservative option would lower this payout to +375.
That Indiana shift in defense allowed Andrew Nembhard to preserve a touch of energy on that end of the court, part of how he easily cleared his Game 6 points prop of 10.5, scoring 17 on 5-of-7 shooting. Most notably, Nembhard took five 3-pointers, more than he had in a game since Game 1.
Tyrese Haliburton played ably enough through his calf strain, but he also played fewer minutes than usual, undoubtedly an intentional decision. No, that was not solely because of the blowout. Haliburton played 23 minutes, while Nembhard and Pascal Siakam played 31 and 32, respectively.
A similar approach may be needed in Game 7, meaning a few more minutes of added offensive responsibility for Nembhard, furthering the reasons to expect him to clear this prop.
As for the Over, oddsmakers have adjusted too far for the nerves of a Game 7. Thursday night’s Game 6 closed with a total of 221.5 or 222. Game 5, in Oklahoma City, featured a total of 222.5.
Should this total fall by seven points simply because it is a Game 7?
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Pacers vs Thunder odds
Pacers vs Thunder live odds
Pacers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +8.5 | Oklahoma City -8.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +275 | Oklahoma City -350
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 | Under 214.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread took only Indiana money on Friday, moving it down to +7.5 from +8.5.
- That kind of spread movement makes sense even if looking at only the total. A lower-scoring game should also feature a tighter final score, simply logically.
- For reference: Game 6 opened with a total of 224.5, falling a couple of points in no small part because of the questions around Haliburton’s availability.
- Now that we know his availability — capable, playing, perhaps with an unspoken minutes limit — that opening number holds more relevance to this depressed Game 7 total.
Pacers vs Thunder trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 45 games at home (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pacers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Sunday, 6-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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