Lucas Giolito has quietly pitched very well of late, especially on the road.
My Red Sox vs. Giants predictions expect that trend to continue in a hard-fought, low-scoring game between Boston and San Francisco.
Red Sox vs Giants prediction
My Red Sox vs Giants best bet: Lucas Giolito Under 2.5 earned runs (-135 at Caesars)
Lucas Giolito started this season in rocky fashion, but he's turned a corner of late. Giolito has held opponents to one run or fewer in four of the last five starts, with one blow-up game against a homer-heavy Angels team the lone exception.
Otherwise, three of the four games were quality starts against competitive teams with positive run differentials in the Mariners, Rays, and Braves.
The underlying numbers suggest that the strong results Giolito has posted over the last month are well-deserved. He has a 2.75 FIP during that span, which is even lower than his ERA (2.84).
Giolito’s strong run of play should continue Sunday afternoon against the San Francisco Giants, who lack a particularly scary offense despite being a good team overall.
The Giants rank 15th in runs per game, 23rd in stolen bases, 24th in batting average, and 24th in homers. They don’t hit for average, they don’t possess much team speed, and they can't put up runs in bulk with power.
Their offense is especially underwhelming on home soil. The Giants are hitting only .209 against right-handed pitchers in San Francisco this month.
Given Giolito is in good form, has conceded only five runs through four road starts, and the Giants are struggling at the dish (particularly at home), he should be able to keep them in check offensively.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Red Sox vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants team total Under 4.5
Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 hits
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 hits
The Giants team total Under carries the same line of thinking as the Giolito play. He's limited offenses extremely well over the last month and finds himself in a good matchup to continue his success.
When Giolito exits the game, the Red Sox will rely on a high-end bullpen that ranks fifth in team ERA on the season. They should be able to pick up where Giolito leaves off and keep the Giants to a manageable number.
Carlos Narvaez has at least one hit in 64% of his appearances this season. That numbers soars to 69% when isolating games against left-handed starting pitchers. Narvaez has averaged 1.4 hits in those games, which checks out given his .285 average and .405 wOBA vs. lefties on the season.
Going the other way, Devers has a strong chance of picking up a knock. He’s hit safely in seven of his last 10 against right-handed starters and no doubt has extra motivation to perform in the series finale against his former club.
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Red Sox vs Giants odds
Red Sox vs Giants live odds
Red Sox vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +130 | San Francisco -154
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-160) | San Francisco -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Red Sox vs Giants trend
Lucas Giolito has conceded only two runs over his past three road starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Giants.
How to watch Red Sox vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 6-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (3-1, 4.73 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Giants latest injuries
Red Sox vs Giants weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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