The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles in the third and final matchup of this AL East series at Yankee Stadium today. MLB odds list New York as a -205 favorite, while the total sits at 9.5.
My Orioles vs. Yankees prediction targets the New York runline in a lopsided matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, June 22.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet: Yankees -1.5 (-110 at Caesars)
The clear hitting advantage in this matchup goes to the New York Yankees. Entering this contest, the Yankees rank in the Top 4 of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles rank in the bottom half of the league in each of those four categories. With a significant hitting advantage, New York should take care of business as right-hander Will Warren takes the mound.
Despite his inconsistency this season, Warren’s underlying metrics are solid. He ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate.
On the other hand, right-hander Dean Kremer gets the ball for Baltimore. His analytics are significantly worse, given that Kremer ranks in the bottom third of the league in each of those three categories.
That just leaves the relief pitching, which is yet another significant edge for the Yankees. They rank in the Top 12 in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR.
The Orioles fail to measure up across the board.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees -1.5
Aaron Judge 1+ hits
DJ LeMahieu 1+ hits
If we are backing New York to win by multiple runs, then we need some of its hitters to reach base. There are perhaps no two better candidates than Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu.
Judge is the clear favorite in the AL MVP odds and ranks in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Meanwhile, LeMahieu possesses a strong track record against Kremer.
Through 23 plate appearances against the right-hander, LeMahieu boasts a .381 BA and .310 xBA.
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Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +158 | New York -190
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-120) | Under 9.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Orioles vs Yankees trend
Each of New York’s past four victories over Baltimore have come by five or more runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Sunday, 6-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 11:35 a.m. ET |
| TV | Roku |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Dean Kremer (6-7, 4.80 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (4-4, 4.83 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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