MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds Today for June 22: Finding Value With Nimmo

Our MLB betting picks see two New York Mets going deep tonight, including Brandon Nimmo. But first, Teoscar Hernandez gets a great Sunday afternoon matchup.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Jun 22, 2025 • 11:21 ET • 4 min read
New York Mets MLB Brandon Nimmo
Photo By - Imagn Images. New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo (9) rounds the bases after hitting a home run.

There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of player props to choose from.

I have compiled my three best home run props for June 22, featuring a pair of picks for Sunday Night Baseball, as I believe the Mets' bats will get the better of Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo.

Here are my free MLB picks for today.

Best MLB home run props today

  • Dodgers Teoscar Hernandez (+280)
  • Mets Brandon Nimmo (+600)
  • Mets Juan Soto (+350)
  • 💲 +9400 parlay💲

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HR picks for June-22

Teoscar Hernandez (+280 at DraftKings)

The afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate features the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Washington Nationals. Los Angeles’ Teoscar Hernandez enters this contest in great form, having homered in four of the past 10 games.

Hernandez boasts a .270 BA, .595 SLG and .936 OPS over that stretch. This success is likely to continue against right-hander Michael Soroka, who takes the mound for Washington.

Through six plate appearances against Soroka, Hernandez boasts a .539 xSLG. Meanwhile, Soroka ranks in the bottom half of the league in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Brandon Nimmo (+600 at DraftKings)

Sunday Night Baseball features the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the New York Mets in an NL East matchup. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for Philadelphia, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.

Through 15 starts this season, Luzardo possesses a 4.41 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

New York’s Brandon Nimmo is likely to keep things going against Luzardo. Through 14 plate appearances against him, Nimmo boasts a .583 SLG with one home run.

Juan Soto (+350 at DraftKings)

Another Mets hitter to target in this matchup is Juan Soto. Entering this contest in great form, Soto boasts a .389 BA, .889 SLG, and 1.365 OPS over his past five games.

He has hit three home runs over that stretch. History suggests that Soto’s success will continue against Luzardo.

Like Nimmo, Soto has previously homered off Luzardo. Through 16 plate appearances against him, Soto possesses a .692 SLG and .550 xSLG.

Today’s HR parlay

Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run

Brandon Nimmo to hit a home run

Juan Soto to hit a home run

  1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
  2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners
  3. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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