The New York Mets were able to hand the Philadelphia Phillies their first loss of the 2021 MLB season with an 8-4 victory last night behind a strong performance from Marcus Stroman.
But the Mets will be in tough for the rubber match of this three-game set, as they’ll be betting underdogs going up against Phillies ace Aaron Nola while New York will counter with talented up-and-comer David Peterson.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Mets vs. Phillies on Tuesday, April 7, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel opened Philadelphia a -156 favorite Tuesday night, bottomed out at -152, peaked at -174 and is at -164 as of 2:15 p.m. ET today. Moneyline ticket count and cash are both running 3/1 on the Phillies. The total bounced between 8.5 and 8 several times and is now 8 (Over -118), with the Over drawing 58 percent of bets/57 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
David Peterson (2020: 6-2, 3.44 ERA): With the way Peterson looked in his rookie season, the Mets felt OK to say goodbye to the likes of Steven Matz and not stress too much about the Noah Syndergaard injury. The southpaw does most of his work with a four-seam fastball that touches 95 mph and a slider as his chase pitch.
Aaron Nola (0-0, 2.70 ERA): Nola bounced back in 2020 after a bit of a down year in 2019. The right-hander finished the shorted 2020 campaign with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and his strikeouts per nine innings were the highest of his career at 12.1. Nola carried that momentum over into the Phillies’ opener, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out six in 6 2-3 innings against the Braves.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jonathan Villar 2B (Probable), J.D. Davis 3B (Probable), Seth Lugo RP (Out), Drew Smith RP (Out).
Phillies: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are just 5-12 in their last 17 games in Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
There has been a theme so far in this series. Strong starting pitching followed by one team taking advantage of some shaky bullpen work. In Game 1, the Phillies were jumping for joy when Jacob deGrom was removed from the game, coming back to win 5-3, and yesterday the Mets were able to get to the Philly pen for six runs in an eventual 8-4 victory. And there should be more solid starting pitching in this one.
As noted, Nola got his season off on the right foot by leading the Phillies to a win over the Braves. Nola had mixed results against the Mets last season, with one great, one OK and one bad start. That said, Nola knows he has the stuff to shut down that lineup.
And while the Philly lineup isn’t firing on all cylinders yet, they still rank ninth in batting average and are one of the most talented lineups in the National League from top to bottom, so you know the runs will come eventually.
But what has been the most impressive part about the Phillies this season has been their improved bullpen. Now anchored by former Ray Jose Alvarado, last night was the first time this season the Phillies’ pen had allowed a run.
Meanwhile, Peterson shows lots of promise, but can struggle with walks, and allowed five runs on three hits and four walks in just two innings of work in his lone start against the Phillies last season. We’re siding with the team with the edge in starters.
PREDICTION: Phillies (-150)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, these NL East rivals have played to the Over in each of the first two games, seeing eight runs in the first game and 12 in the second. And with another 8 on the board, this trend is a good bet to continue.
As mentioned, the Phillies haven’t been plating a ton of runs yet, but are still waiting for Bryce Harper to break out, who has opened the season hitting just .200. But the matchup with Peterson is a solid one and the Mets bullpen has been shaky to start the season, allowing eight runs in 11 innings.
While Nola is a tough matchup for anyone, the Mets proved last year that they are now an above-average hitting team, leading the MLB in batting average in 2020, and then adding Francisco Lindor to the mix. The Mets should do their part to send this one above the number.
PREDICTION: Over 8 (-110)
Mets vs Phillies betting card
- Phillies (-150)
- Over 8 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Mets vs. Phillies picks, you could win $21.82 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
