Rays vs Red Sox Picks: Good Value on Rays to Rebound

Apr 7, 2021 |
Rays vs Red Sox Picks: Good Value on Rays to Rebound
After a tough-to-swallow loss in extra innings last night, the Tampa Bay Rays will try to rebound this afternoon and avoid a sweep against the Boston Red Sox.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
After a tough-to-swallow loss in extra innings last night, the Tampa Bay Rays will try to rebound this afternoon and avoid a sweep against the Boston Red Sox.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox have bounced back after getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles in their season-opening series. And after last night’s 6-5 extra-inning comeback win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the BoSox are looking for a sweep of their own.

The Red Sox will be MLB betting favorites in today’s matinee as they hand the ball to hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi while Rays counter with Ryan Yarbough. Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on Wednesday, April 7, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.

Rays vs Red Sox odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Boston opened a slim  -112 favorite Tuesday night at FanDuel, stretched to -127 by early this morning and is at -120 as of 12:30 p.m. ET, 40 minutes before first pitch. The Rays are taking 66 percent of moneyline bets, while the Red Sox are landing 59 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 9 (Over -113), touched 9.5 overnight and is now 9 (Under -120), with 54 percent of bets/78 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Rays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 0.00 ERA): With Tyler Glasnow the latest ace of the Rays staff, and bringing in veterans like Chris Archer and Michael Wacha, Yarbrough could be a little overlooked in this Rays rotation. But he shouldn’t be because Yarbrough has a quality arm who works off mostly a sharp cutter and a fall off-the-table changeup. The lefty opened the season by shutting out the Marlins on four hits over 5 2-3 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi (0-1, 1.69 ERA): While the Red Sox were swept by the Orioles in their season-opening series, you couldn’t blame Eovaldi. The hard-throwing right-hander looked impressive on Opening Day, allowing just one run on four hits in 5 1-3 innings against the O’s. Eovaldi throws his fastball over 50 percent of the time, but that doesn’t mean it's easy to hit as the average velocity of it is nearly 97 miles per hour.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Rays: Kevin Kiermaier CF (Out), Ji-Man Choi 1B (Out), Chaz Roe RP (Out), Nick Anderson RP (Out), Oliver Drake RP (Out).
Red Sox: Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rays are 13-4 in their last 17 games in Boston. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

The Rays will need a short memory after Tuesday night’s loss. They had one-run leads heading into the bottom of the ninth, 11th, and 12th—ended up losing the game. The bottom of the 12th was particularly hard to watch as they were one strike away from winning, before a hit by pitch, a wild pitch and a poorly played fly ball led to the Red Sox’s victory.

But the Rays will look to put that behind them when they hand the ball to Yarbrough for the finale. As mentioned, the lefty looked impressive in his first start of the season, and now takes on a Red Sox lineup that ranks 25th in OPS and hasn’t hit lefties well so far.

While you can expect a strong performance out of Eovaldi in this one, the Rays are in a prime spot to bounce back and are going to play a little pissed off after letting the last one get away. On top of that, the Rays’ bullpen is much better than they have played to this point and we should see a return to the mean soon. Getting the Rays as a short underdog is a good value here.

PREDICTION: Rays (+110)

Over/Under pick

As for the total, runs could be hard to come by in this one. Yarbrough cruised through his first outing against the Marlins, needing just 65 pitches to get through 5 2-3 innings of work. As noted, Yarbrough now faces a Red Sox lineup that has struggled against southpaws in the early goings of this season, as they are just 6 for 48 with 17 strikeouts against left-handed pitching this year.

Eovaldi is also in a position to succeed in this matchup. The Rays are hitting .221 as a team for far this season and have continued their free-swinging ways from a season ago, which included striking out 13 times in Tuesday night’s matchup. Look for Eovaldi to once again rely on his fastball to mow through the Rays lineup. With two solid starters going head-to-head, this game is a good bet to stay Under the number.

PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)

Rays vs Red Sox betting card

  • Rays (+110)
  • Under 9 (-110)
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