Diamondbacks vs Rockies Picks: Trouble for Bumgarner at Coors

The veteran southpaw has been a major disappointment since signing a five-year, $85 million deal with the Diamondbacks, putting up a 7.09 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts.

Last Updated: Apr 7, 2021 6:30 PM ET
Madison Bumgarner Arizona Diamondbacks MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It's the battle of the basement at Coors Field on Wednesday, as the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second of a three-game set.

In typical Coors Field fashion, the series opener was a slugfest. The Diamondbacks won 10-8 in 13 innings and the two teams combined for 22 hits. Fifteen pitchers were used in a game that took four hours and 29 minutes to complete.

Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Rockies on April 7, with first pitch set for 8:40 p.m. ET.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Colorado landed on the FanDuel odds board as a slim -112 favorite overnight and inched up a few cents to -118, but the moneyline then jumped the fence to Arizona -118. As of 6:30 p.m. ET, the Diamondbacks are -116 while getting 68 percent of tickets and 53 percent of cash. The total opened at 11 (Over -118) and rose to 11.5 (Under -114), with 53 percent of tickets/68 percent of money on the Over.

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Diamondbacks vs Rockies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Madison Bumgarner (0-0, 13.50 ERA): The veteran left-hander has not provided the Diamondbacks with the production they were expecting when they inked him to a five-year, $85 million deal following the 2019 season. In 10 starts with Arizona, Bumgarner has a whopping 7.09 ERA and 1.53 WHIP and his velocity is trending in the wrong direction. He got shelled in his first start of the season, allowing six runs on seven hits and served up two long balls. He inspires no confidence pitching at Coors Field tonight.

Antonio Senzatela (0-1, 18.90 ERA): Senzatela, like Bumgarner, got rocked in his 2021 debut. He was unable to get out of the fourth inning in a start against the Dodgers, allowing seven runs on nine hits in an eventual 11-6 loss. The 26-year-old put up a respectable 3.44 ERA in 12 starts a season ago but his advanced metrics weren't nearly as kind, with his FIP more than a whole run higher, suggesting he was the recipient of some good fortune. Senzatela doesn't miss bats, sporting a well below-average 15.6 percent strikeout rate for his career, and pitching his home games in Coors Field will always leave him susceptible to the long ball. 

Weather

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Key injuries

Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun OF (Out), Joakim Soria RP (Out), Tyler Clippard RP (Out), Nick Ahmed SS (Out).
Rockies: Brendan Rodgers SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the Rockies' last five games against a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Rockies.

Moneyline pick

A couple of years ago you would have looked at this matchup, a depleted Rockies lineup without star Nolan Arenado, and probably had no problem siding with the Bumgarner-led team. Times have changed quite a bit. 

Bumgarner's fastball velocity dropped three miles per hour from 2019 to 2020 and he paid for it. His four-seamer was tattooed last year in his debut season with the Diamondbacks and he failed to record six innings in any of his nine starts. The days of him being a perennial Cy Young contender are long gone, and now the focus shifts to whether the D-Backs can extract any value out of this five-year investment. So far, they haven't.

Bumgarner was a Bottom-10 starting pitcher in WAR last season, had the second-highest home run rate (minimum 40 innings pitched), and had the lowest strikeout rate of his career. He got his average fastball velocity back up to 90 mph in the season opener and fanned six in four innings, but there aren't many positives to find right now for the 31-year-old as he heads into a matchup with the majors' second-best offense in terms of isolated power. The Rockies have benefitted from playing all their games at Coors so far, but they're capitalizing with extra-base hits, which tends to lead to damage on the scoreboard.

The only blessing for Arizona is that it should also tee off with Senzatela on the mound. The Rockies starter brings a 5.14 ERA in 47 career appearances at Coors Field into the outing.

Expect a high-scoring game, but we're banking on Bumgarner digging the Diamondbacks a hole they won't be able to dig themselves out of. Coors Field is simply not the right environment for him to get right in.

PREDICTION: Rockies (-110)

Over/Under pick

What do you get in a Bumgarner versus Senzatela matchup at Coors Field a night after 13 relievers were used? A lot of runs.

Both teams are going to need their starters to shoulder a longer workload after emptying their bullpens with no off day until Monday. They will play the series finale tomorrow and then both immediately jump into another three-game set over the weekend. Asking for much from either of these starters is wishful thinking, so it's looking like another game where the bats do damage after combining for seven homers in the series opener. Three of those bombs were hit by Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon, who is up to a major league-leading four on the young season.

But it might be another Rockie who Bumgarner needs to fear most. Though he's a lefty bat, Charlie Blackmon has never had a major platoon split, hitting both southpaws and righties equally as well, and he's done damage against Bumgarner throughout his career. In 45 career at-bats against the Arizona starter, Blackmon is slashing .356/.388/.533 with a pair of homers. 

On the other side, hot-hitting Ketel Marte is a career .500/.524/.650 hitter versus Senzatela and he's swinging the bat as well as anyone in the majors. Marte is batting .522 with a 1.517 OPS through five games, with half of his 12 hits going for extra bases.

The total could be 15 and we'd still probably take the Over. Hammer it.

PREDICTION: Over 11.5 (-105)

Diamondbacks vs Rockies betting card

  • Rockies (-110)
  • Over 11.5 (-105)
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