Mets vs Phillies NLDS Game 2 Prop Bets: Big Game Bryce Does Damage

Down 1-0 to the Mets, the Phillies will be looking for big games from its best players. That starts with Bryce Harper, who our MLB prop picks expect to thrive in Game 2.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Oct 6, 2024 • 11:29 ET • 4 min read
Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets sure have a flair for the dramatic. They trailed from the first inning onward until they put forth another late offensive explosion, scoring five runs in the eighth en route to a 6-2 win.

I’m expecting a tighter affair in Game 2. I’ll be targeting Luis Severino and a pair of quality left-handed bats, Bryce Harper and Brandon Nimmo, in my MLB player props for October 6. Be sure to also check out our Mets vs. Phillies predictions.

Mets vs Phillies NLDS Game 2 props

Picks made on 10-6 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Mets vs Phillies props

Prop bet #1: Luis Severino Under 15.5 outs

-130 at DraftKings

Luis Severino has been hit around quite a bit of late. He enters play having conceded 3+ earned runs in four consecutive starts, including twice against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The more a pitcher faces a team in a short period of time, the easier time they have adjusting and picking up on tendencies. The Phillies have enjoyed success against Severino twice in the past three weeks and no doubt feel good about what they can accomplish this time around.

Severino has pitched much worse on the road this season. He’s allowed three runs or more in 69% of his games, and his hit rate on this 15.5-out prop is 13% lower than at home.

It’s also worth noting Philadelphia’s offense is much more prolific on home soil. The Phillies own a .260 batting average and have smashed 80 home runs against righties at home this season. Both marks rank them Top 6 in the MLB.

After throwing up a dud in the series opener, the Phillies are positioned nicely to have a big response offensively in Game 2. They’re going to make it tough on Severino to last.

Prop bet #2: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

-143 at BetMGM

Bryce Harper is a good candidate to spearhead the Phillies attack in Game 2. His splits set up very favorably against Severino.

The veteran righty struggled against left-handed bats like Harper all year long. Lefties hit .269 and piled up 17 homers against Severino during the regular season. Those numbers are night and day to what Severino held righties to (.216 average, seven homers).

A dynamic left-handed bat of Harper’s caliber should be a prime beneficiary of the matchup with Severino.

Harper is also a big-time player come playoff time. He's hitting .279 for his career in postseason play and has piled up an average of 2.4 hits + runs + RBI per contest. Those are remarkably good numbers over a 50-game sample.

The Phillies do not want to fall behind two games heading back to New York. They’ll be relying heavily on leaders like Harper to ensure that doesn’t happen.

Prop bet #3: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

+100 at DraftKings

Brandon Nimmo is one of the players at the forefront of this Cinderella-like run from the New York Mets. As the games have gotten tighter and the stakes have risen, Nimmo has elevated his level of play.

He's cleared this line in six of the past seven games, stacking up 18 hits + runs + RBI in aggregate. He finds himself in another good matchup to build on his recent run of success. Nimmo’s batting average was noticeably higher against left-handed pitchers during the regular season.

He has a pretty good track record against Christopher Sanchez as well. Nimmo is hitting .308 against the lefty.

The Phillies are a team Nimmo has always enjoyed success against. Nimmo has recorded at least two H+R+R in seven of the last nine against Philadelphia and 30 of the past 40 dating back to 2022.

 Win or lose, Nimmo should be able to make his mark on this game.

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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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