After a brutal sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, the New York Mets will look to get back on track as they begin a huge road series against their rivals, the Atlanta Braves.
While Atlanta is heating up, taking four of its last six, we’ll explain in our Mets vs. Braves predictions why the visitors may hold the advantage offensively in a battle between two ground-ball pitchers.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Tuesday, June 17.
Mets vs Braves prediction
My Mets vs Braves best bet: Mets moneyline (+115 at Caesars)
We’ve gotten to see just how good David Peterson can be in his last two starts, and can now better understand why the New York Mets have given him chance after chance to prove himself. The big lefty is now 28 years old, but in his last four outings has walked just five batters, which has given him the opportunity to pitch deeper into games and let his solid work in rolling up outs on the ground go to work.
As a ground-ball pitcher, Peterson often gives up plenty of hits, and that’s long been an issue when it comes to making him a trustworthy arm to back. He’s held pretty poor strikeout and walk numbers, which has meant that he’s populating the bases in every outing and putting himself at risk for a blow-up, yet he’s yet to really implode in any start with his season high in earner runs sitting at three – a number he’s hit just twice.
So, Peterson will take his newfound control into a matchup with an Atlanta Braves offense which has looked incredibly flat in the last two weeks and has married a low 8.6% walk rate with a pretty poor 23.7% strikeout rate and allow .138 Isolated Power.
With Atlanta holding no clear edge against ground-ball pitchers in terms of its rank in OPS, but experiencing the natural dip many teams see with a roughly 40-point drop, Peterson should be in the clear for another strong start without much to worry about from his opponents when it comes to walking and hitting for power.
On the other side of the coin, the Mets own the league’s best offense over the last two weeks by wRC+ and will now lick their chops with a ground-baller in Spencer Schwellenbach taking the mound. New York’s .753 OPS against these types ranks fourth in the league, and it sits 10th against fly-ballers. The club will also run into a slightly troubled version of Schwellenbach here, who is coming off a complete game but has also now allowed six runs in his last two starts with some depressed strikeout numbers and a home run against him, which is an issue he was dealing with earlier in the year.
Schwellenbach has struggled for outs on contact with a .267 Expected Batting Average, and the Mets’ incredibly low 18.8% strikeout rate in the last 14 days should keep his strikeouts heading in the wrong direction. I’m also keen on the Mets here given their infield has improved to rank 10th in Outs Above Average this month, while Atlanta has tailed off a bit in 13th. Against all odds, I trust Peterson more here.
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
David Peterson Over 4.5 strikeouts
Austin Riley 2+ bases
Peterson may not be a strikeout machine, but he’s stuck around in games long enough to manage five or more punchouts in four straight outings, and he’s now eclipsed four punchouts in six of his last seven. Atlanta’s strikeout rate is approaching 24% in the last two weeks, and it’s struck out in 24.7% of plate appearances against lefties.
One man who should have success, though, is Austin Riley. The slugger is hitting .328 against ground-ballers to lead the qualified bats on the Braves, and in his career against Peterson he’s 9-for-23 with an xBA of .267 which more or less backs that up. He’s also walked just one time this month, and is batting .304 with just two hitless games in 13 starts, making him a prime target for swings – and total bases.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves live odds
Mets vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +116 | Atlanta -136
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-184) | Atlanta -1.5 (+132)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-17-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, FDSNSO |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (5-2, 2.49 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.11 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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