Mets vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Atlanta is Quick to Start on Offense

The Atlanta Braves were, surprisingly, easily handled by the New York Mets last night. 

Despite the loss, they became the second team in MLB history to have five players hit 25 or more bombs in a single season.

The Mets went into sale mode after the trade deadline and continue to play out the string of their season. Ironically, they've been better since then, as winners of seven of their last 10. Incredibly, there's still a tiny window for the Mets to make the postseason as they sit 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Braves Tuesday, August 22.

Mets vs Braves odds

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Mets vs Braves predictions

The 2023 Atlanta Braves are on a historical run when it comes to first-inning scoring. They've averaged just under one run in the opening frame (.98) on the season, a number that has gone down of late but is still unbelievably impressive. How impressive? Well, the closest number I could find since at least 2005 was .86. 

This first-inning prowess soars to 1.31 in home games. Considering that, it seems rather ominous for the Mets that the Braves are at home tonight and they haven't scored in the first inning in four straight games. The Braves are coming off a loss, which has not gone well for opposing teams all that often, and are opposing a somewhat suspect pitcher.

Of Atlanta's 44 losses, they've scored in the first inning of the following game 29 times. From a raw numbers perspective, that's a nice edge on a prop available at a nice plus-money price.

The other side is who the Mets will deploy on the mound. Tylor Megill has not been good this season. He struggles with the hard-hit ball, seeing his barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity all set in the bottom 25% of baseball.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you probably know those aren't the issues you want to have when facing this Braves team. That especially holds against the top half of the lineup that features three of the four hitters in the Top 5% of baseball in hard-hit rate and/or barrel rate like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna Jr. 

Games aren't played on paper, but everything about this matchup suggests the Braves should mash. Given their situational aspects and trends coming off a loss, I'm backing it to happen immediately. We could take runs scored in the first inning, but I like the value on the first-inning moneyline a bit better. My projections priced it at +165, and I'm getting at +185. It's an edge I'll take for my best bet.

My best bet: Braves first-inning 3-way moneyline (+185 at FanDuel)

Mets vs Braves same-game parlay

Braves first-inning 3-way moneyline (+190)

Matt Olson to record an RBI (-130)

Braves F5 -0.5 (-160)

+399 at FanDuel

It's a straightforward same-game parlay for us, given that we expect Atlanta to have a strong night at the plate. We're taking the Braves' first-inning moneyline and pairing it with two other correlated plays at a reasonable price.

First, we're keeping it simple with Olson, who lines up behind two bats that get on base at an excessive clip in Michael Harris II and Acuna. Olson has easily been the best power bat in this lineup with an elite hard-hit number to go with a barrel rate that ranks in the Top 2% of baseball. That's about as good as it gets, and we're taking him to have some significant success against a pitcher who can't generate many swings and misses while struggling with the hard-hit ball. 

The last leg of this is self-explanatory, but it bumped things up a decent amount, and we'll take it. We're rolling the Braves to continue its first-inning success and lead after five innings. We've yet to mention Bryce Elder here, but his matchup tonight is decent. Elder has been a ground ball-reliant pitcher most of the season, and the Mets have hit into ground balls at an above-average clip on the year. The pitching mismatch here is significant, and he should easily be able to take advantage of it. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I started looking for why the Braves could lose this more than why they would win. It isn't easy to find reasons. The last few games between these teams have been odd in some ways, but it's still difficult to ignore the historic dominance that the Braves have held over the Mets.

Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 games against New York and is currently in the midst of the longest losing streak it's had against the Mets (two games) in at least two seasons. They have a significant pitching mismatch, and it's hard to see the Braves struggling for runs.

Sure, Elder has had some recent struggles, but he looked much better in his most recent start, and the matchup tonight for him is favorable. The Mets are eighth in groundball rate, and Elder's success is predicated on inducing ground balls. Conversely, it's the best offense in baseball against a pitcher at the bottom of the barrel in most any metric related to hitting. Maybe it seems too simple, but I'd be inclined to consider laying this number — even at a hefty price. 

The total in this one tonight perfectly aligns with my projections, and consequently, I only have a slight interest in playing a side here. 

There's a decent enough chance that the Braves could eclipse this number by themselves if they are on their A games, but their uneven play as of late makes that a tricky proposition. On the other end of things, I back Elder in this spot, but it's not like he's spotless. Elder's expected ERA still isn't quite in line with his actual one, meaning there's still reason to expect negative regression. The situational aspects at play here make this a firm stay away even though I lean to the Over. 

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The Braves have won seven of the last ten games against the Mets.. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs Braves

Mets vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Tylor Megill (7-6, 5.53 ERA): The metrics aren't kind to Megill. He doesn't miss many bats and gives up a lot of contact. Megill's whiff rate is in the bottom 25% of baseball. When creating swings and misses are that much of an issue for you, problems will always occur. Megill enters this one off a decent start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he went five innings and gave up two earned runs.  

Bryce Elder (9-4, 3.46 ERA): Over Elder's last three starts, he's allowed 12 runs in 16 innings, giving him an ERA that's comfortably over 5.00 for August. With that in mind, Elder does come into this outing off a great start when he shut out the New York Yankees for seven innings. Given some of his underlying metrics, we'll likely see a bit of an up-and-down nature to things for Elder down the stretch

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