Cam Schlittler has emerged as an American League Cy Young contender, and he headlines the rivalry opener as the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees tonight. New York is the favorite at 61% on the moneyline, with first pitch set for 7:15 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
Schlittler’s edge over Patrick Sandoval shapes my Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions, which back New York on the moneyline, lean Under the total, and target a Yankees slugger to go deep.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 28.
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (61%)
Cam Schlittler gives the New York Yankees the clearest advantage in this matchup, and the 60% probability is reasonable enough to back the Yankees despite the strong recent form from the Boston Red Sox. Schlittler enters 11-6 with a 2.16 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 193 strikeouts. He’s the clear AL Cy Young frontrunner.
Boston counters with Patrick Sandoval, whose 4.54 ERA and 1.76 WHIP make for a much shakier profile. Opponents are batting .323 with an .866 OPS against him, and his last five starts have included 33 hits and 14 walks over just 25 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox have been one of baseball’s hottest teams since the All-Star break, but their production against right-handed pitching has dipped on the road. With Schlittler controlling traffic and the Yankees hitting lefties well at home, I’ll side with New York.
I’d play the Yankees up to about 62%.
COVERS INTEL: Cam Schlittler has allowed one earned run or fewer in 19 of his starts this season.
Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (56%)
Schlittler’s dominance is enough to bet on a weak offensive effort from Boston and, ultimately, the Under 7.5. He has allowed just 14 home runs across 158 innings, limiting one of the quickest ways a total gets away, and his sub-1.00 WHIP makes sustained rallies hard to string together.
New York has a favorable matchup against Sandoval, but the Yankees remain without Aaron Judge and managed only one run on five hits against Houston on Thursday. That lowers their offensive ceiling enough so that the Under doesn’t need Sandoval to pitch brilliantly.
If Schlittler keeps Boston around two runs, scores like 4-2 or 5-2 stay firmly in play. At 56%, I prefer backing the stronger starter to dictate the scoring environment.
I’d play the Under up to about 58%.
Red Sox vs Yankees home run prediction: Paul Goldschmidt (22%)
Paul Goldschmidt draws one of the most favorable individual matchups in the Yankees lineup, and the 14-cent price offers roughly a 7x payout if it hits. Goldschmidt has crushed left-handed pitching this season, batting .308 with a .585 slugging mark and nine home runs in 152 plate appearances against southpaws.
The pitch-level fit is even better. Sandoval’s four-seam fastball has been hit for a .423 average and a .692 slugging mark, one of the weakest pitches in his arsenal, and Goldschmidt has hammered four-seamers for a .694 slugging mark and a +8 Statcast run value this season.
Sandoval allows plenty of hard contact to right-handed hitters, and Goldschmidt gets exactly the pitch he’s punished all year.
I’ll take the long price on his platoon power and play this up to 16% for a quarter unit.
- ML/RL bets: 3-6 (-3.07 units)
- Over/Under bets: 6-3 (+2.96 units)
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Yankee Stadium is warm at 80 degrees for first pitch, with just a light 3.4 mph wind that leaves the air fairly neutral. That warmth and the park's hitter-friendly dimensions add a bit of carry, a nice backdrop for the Paul Goldschmidt home run bet.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 41% | Yankees 60%
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (59%) | Yankees -1.5 (42%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have posted an .848 OPS against left-handed pitching at home over the last month, a timely statistic with Red Sox lefty Patrick Sandoval on the mound. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 4.54 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (11-6, 2.17 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
