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There is so much to dive into this evening in the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 28, including why Tomoyuki Sugano is going to get shelled in Atlanta.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Tomoyuki Sugano |
Over 3.5 Earned Runs | +110 |
 Michael Wacha |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +130 |
 Dean Kremer |
Under 2.5 Earned Runs | -118 |
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 Earned Runs (48%)
Death. Taxes. Fade Tomoyuki Sugano every five days.
The Colorado Rockies’ seasoned sophomore right-hander never has a short leash. Warren Schaeffer makes sure Sugano eats enough innings to get the most out of his starts.
So far this season, he is averaging 5.26 innings per start while allowing nearly three runs per start.
Over on Batters-Box’s model, Sugano is the worst-rated pitcher on the day. He draws a fully elite-rated Atlanta Braves lineup that features five elite-rated hitters in the default ratings.
However, in the current-season dataset, the Braves have seven elite bats and two with strong ratings.
We are not done talking about the old man. Six of those nine hitters in a great spot this evening will be batting from the left side. The last 30 left-handed hitters Sugano has faced own a .390 xBA, .684 xSLG, .414 xwOBA, and .286 ISO.
Four runs is a lot, but not when you are this season’s Antonio Senzatela. If you are worried about the errors, take the Braves’ first-five team total Over.
NEVER PAY JUICE FOR FOUR RUNS.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Rockies.TV
Michael Wacha Under 3.5 Strikeouts (43%)
Nothing is more scrumptious than a pitcher with a low strikeout rate taking on a team with a low strikeout rate.
This evening, Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Wacha draws a Cleveland Guardians lineup that has stayed under an 18.5% strikeout rate over its last 21 games. Most recently, over their last six games, they have posted just a 16.3% rate.
Across the team’s last 60 at-bats, only two hitters have a strikeout rate above 18.3%. The Guardians have the highest contact rate in baseball over their last 12 games. Wacha is going to have a tough time getting past these hitters.
The 35-year-old sports the second-lowest average strikeout rate on Batters-Box, at 15.67%. Over his last five starts and overall on the road, he has consistently stayed under 20%.
Do not take this down much more than the number above. If anything, take the Under 4.5 for a better safety blanket.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEGuardians.TV, Royals.TV
Dean Kremer Under 2.5 Earned Runs (54%)
Despite the heater the Chicago White Sox are on, tonight should be a change of pace from what we have seen this past week from the South Siders.
They draw Minnesota Twins veteran Dean Kremer, who has been nails across his last five starts. The right-hander has done a great job limiting hard-hit and barreled balls, posting a 3.54 expected ERA during that stretch while owning a 1.16 WHIP.
The White Sox have some wild home-road splits, as they crush the ball at home, then fall off a bit once they leave The Rate. This season on the road, they have posted a league-average 100 wRC+, .315 wOBA, and 25.1% strikeout rate.
With the White Sox scoring 21 runs in their last two games, they should come back down to earth this evening. Do not pay more than 58% for this prop.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Twins.TV
- Prop picks: 436-868, -16.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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