MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Sunday, August 3

Our MLB betting picks believe Charlie Morton is in for a rough Sunday night as he faces the homer-happy Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and the Phillies tonight.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Aug 3, 2025 • 12:15 ET • 4 min read
Schwarber Phillies MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies at the plate.

There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.

I have compiled my three best free home run picks for August 3, featuring 

Best MLB home run props today

  • Padres O’Hearn (+650)
  • Phillies Schwarber (+210)
  • Phillies Harper (+300)
  • 💲 +8150 parlay💲

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HR picks for August 3

Ryan O’Hearn (+650 at DraftKings)

Ryan O’Hearn looks to make an impact for his new team as the San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals in the afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. He homered in his final game as a Baltimore Oriole and gets the opportunity to keep it going against St. Louis’ Andre Pallante.

Through 21 starts this year, Pallante is 6-7 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The former fourth-round draft pick has routinely struggled since moving from the Cardinals’ bullpen to the rotation, and his analytics suggest more of the same going forward.

Pallante ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.

O’Hearn is 1-for-3 in his career against Pallante, with that one hit being a home run.

Kyle Schwarber (+210 at DraftKings)

Sunday Night Baseball features the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Detroit Tigers. Right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound for Detroit and profiles as a solid fade candidate.

Through 23 appearances this season, Morton is 7-8 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as he ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and walk rate.

Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber is likely to exploit this opportunity. Entering this contest in great form, Schwarber has hit 10 home runs over his past 19 games.

Bryce Harper (+300 at DraftKings)

Another Phillies hitter to back in this game is Bryce Harper. He has fared extremely well against Morton in the past, posting a .621 slugging percentage and .567 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) through 39 plate appearances.

Like Schwarber, Harper enters this matchup in strong form, with six home runs over his past 14 games. During that stretch, Harper boasts a .309 batting average, .745 slugging percentage, and 1.123 OPS.

Today’s HR parlay

Ryan O’Hearn home run

Kyle Schwarber home run

Bryce Harper home run

Today’s most popular HR bets

  1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
  2. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
  3. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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