There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best home run props for Sunday. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB home run picks for May 11.
Best MLB home run props today
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Jake Bauers 1+ HR (+550) -
Salvador Perez 1+ HR (+400) -
Rafael Devers 1+ HR (+500)
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HR picks for May 11
Jake Bauers 1+ home run (+550 at DraftKings)
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Milwaukee Brewers in the afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for Tampa Bay and should serve as a good fade candidate in this market.
Rasmussen has started to slide recently, surrendering five home runs over his past three starts. He is 0-2 over that stretch with a 6.28 ERA.
If anyone on Milwaukee is likely to continue that trend, it’s Jake Bauers. Through five plate appearances against Rasmussen, Bauers owns a .400 slugging percentage and a .517 expected slugging percentage (xSLG).
Bauers also enters this matchup in good form, posting a .375 batting average and one home run over his past three games.
Salvador Perez 1+ home run (+400 at DraftKings)
Later in the afternoon, the Kansas City Royals host the Boston Red Sox. Right-hander Lucas Giolito takes the mound for Boston, and is arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season.
Through two starts, Giolito is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. If he qualified, he would rank in the bottom quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Salvador Perez seemingly has Giolito’s number. Through 37 plate appearances against the right-hander, Perez boasts a .946 slugging percentage with five home runs.
Rafael Devers 1+ home run (+500 at DraftKings)
Sticking with the same game, my MLB picks are also backing a member of the Red Sox to go deep: Rafael Devers. He has been seeing the ball well recently, posting a .410 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and 1.214 OPS over his past 14 games.
Devers has hit four home runs over that stretch. That success is likely to continue against right-hander Seth Lugo.
Lugo is a prime regression candidate, sporting a 4.33 xERA compared to his 2.84 ERA. Furthermore, Devers is 2-for-5 in his career against Lugo, with one of those two hits being a home run.
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