We're officially into the dog days of summer, with rising temps, rising home runs rates, and — hopefully — rising chances to cash in on the MLB odds for FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works: Place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run every Tuesday... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
Ballpark Pal's Park Factors have five different stadiums with notable upgrades for home runs today, but a number of those games have either power-deprived offenses or tough starting pitching matchups (or both) — plus not games at Coors Field or GABP — so we're left with two games that stands out to target for MLB home run odds.
So I'm looking at the one cross-town rivalry and one matchups between two classic teams, providing the best MLB player props and values based on FanDuel's odds, with my best Dinger Tuesday plays for July 25.
Best home run odds and props for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
New York Mets at New York Yankees (Yankee Stadium, 7:05 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Verlander |
0.98 | 9.1 | 40.9 | 6.2 |
 Domingo German |
1.57 | 16 | 40.6 | 8.8 |
Verlander has really started to round into form, allowing just one home run in his last five games, but when he does get hit, it's usually his fastball — plus his overall whiff rate is way down from previous years.
In addition to Verlander, I also love the prospect of getting at the New York Mets bullpen, which has the second-worst HR/9 in the majors this year, and the second-lowest ground ball rate in July — so contact, specifically fly balls, at Yankee Stadium (BP Pal's most upgraded park for home runs today) means anything can happen.
As for German, yes the New York Yankees righty threw a perfect game recently, but he has allowed a dinger in seven of his last nine outings overall, and while his curveball is his calling card, opponents are hitting .315 off his fastball this year.
Hitters to target - Mets
- Francisco Alvarez, RH (+370) - Hitting .313 with five HR against RHP in July, with 10 HR off fastballs this year.
- Francisco Lindor, SH (+430) - Has a 51.7% fly-ball rate, with a .293 BA and three HR, off righties this month.
- Brandon Nimmo, LH (+520) - Has four HR and a 43.8% FB rate off RHP this month.
- Brett Baty, LH (+520) - Hitting .287 off FB from righties this year, with a .286 BA and 2 HR off RHB in July
Hitters to target - Yankees
- Giancarlo Stanton, RH (+285) - Has a 54.1% FB rate in July, with four of his 10 hits off righties this month going for a HR.
- Gleyber Torres, RH (+440) - Hitting .328 with three homers off RHB this month, with a .300 BA and 14 HR off fastballs this season.
- Anthony Rizzo, LH (+420) - Hitting .160 vs. RHP in July, but has a 41.2% FB rate + weight of a 45-game HR drought was removed on Sunday.
- Kyle Higashioka, RH (+560) - Has a 43.5% FB rate, with .333 BA and two homers in 11 games vs. righties this month.
Best betting value: Francisco Lindor (+430)
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charlie Morton |
0.82 | 10.5 | 31.9 | 8.3 |
 Bullpen game |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
This isn't so much a fading of the pitchers as it is betting on two offenses that are producing as of late, with the Atlanta Braves first in homers against righties since July 1, and the Boston Red Sox T-13th in that span (but sixth in overall dingers since the All-Star Break) — in Fenway Park with the winds blowing straight out.
Morton has also avoided the home run of last (one in his last five starts), but he's got a barrel rate that's currently the second-highest of his career, and for as good as his curveball has been... opponents are hitting .314 off his fastball and .444 off his sinker.
Boston will go with reliever John Schreiber as an opener, then utilize a bullpen game (possibly with Nick Pivetta as the bulk guy), but either way, Boston's pitching staff will face the league's most homer-happy club as of late.
Hitters to target - Braves
- Austin Riley, RH (+310) - Snapped a five-game homer streak Sunday, but hitting .262 with a 40% FB rate off righties in July.
- Ozzie Albies, SH (+420) - Hitting .254 with five dingers in July against RHP, while posting a 55.1% fly-ball rate.
- Ronald Acuna Jr., RH (+300) - Hitting .323 off righties this month, with three HR.
- Orlando Arcia, RH (+560) - Has four long balls vs. RHP in July, with a 40% FB rate.
Hitters to target - Red Sox
- Triston Casas, LH (+480) - Is on fire right now, hitting .359 with five HR and a 44.8% FB rate off righties this month.
- Rafael Devers, LH (+340) - Has three HR, with a .314 BA and 43.3% FB rate, off RHP in July, also hitting .286 with 14 HR off fastballs in 2023.
- Justin Turner, RH (+520) - Has a 43.3% fly-ball rate, .313 average and three dingers off righties in July, while hitting .293 off FB this year.
Best betting value: Triston Casas (+480)
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