It's Tuesday — and we all know what that means: The best day of the week to bet on MLB home run odds!
Ballpark Pal's Park Factors has a number of stadiums upgraded for home runs today, providing some interesting values if you're betting FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion.
How it works, is you place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run every Tuesday... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
As much as I love a good ballgame at the Great American Ball Park, I'm passing on the Marlins-Red matchup, and instead looking at MLB odds for two matchups with HR-favorable pitchers on the mound.
I'll break down the pitcher/hitter matchups and give the best MLB player props and values based on FanDuel's odds with my best Dinger Tuesday plays for August 8.
Best home run odds and props for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers (American Family Field, 8:10 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Freeland (LHP) |
1.59 | 12.7 | 41.3 | 9.1 |
 Wide Miley (LHP) |
1.00 | 9.8 | 38.5 | 8.3 |
The Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies are both sending lefties out to the mound... and neither inspires a ton of confidence in avoiding home runs.
Miley didn't give up a HR in four innings against Washington his last time out, but it was his first start in a month after hitting the IL with an elbow injury and he did allow a long ball in two of his prior three outings. The southpaw has pretty even splits and will be facing a Rockies lineup that, like Milwaukee, is tied for eighth in dingers against LHP since July 1 (albeit two of Colorado's biggest bats were traded away last week).
On the flip side, Freeland has been downright dreadful lately, giving up three dingers in his last start and in five of his last six outings (the only exception was four bad innings vs. Oakland).
Righties do much more damage against the Rockies lefty, but he — and Miley — likely aren't pitching deep into this game, so extra bullpen work also means both lefty and righty hitters are in play
Hitters to target - Rockies
- Brenton Doyle, RH (+800) - Hitting .280 off lefties since July 1, with a 53.8% fly-ball rate.
- Ryan McMahon, LH (+600) - Rockies HR leader, but hitting just .100 off lefties since July 1. Worth a look due to bullpen matchups.
- Nolan Jones, LH (+500) - Hit .333 off lefties, with two HR and a 42.9% FB rate, since the start of July.
- Jurickson Profar, SH (+680) - Has a .333 average and 37% FB rate against southpaws over the last five weeks.
- Brendan Rogers, RH (+750) - Has only played six games in 2023, but hit .317 with eight HR in 180 AB vs. LHP last year.
Hitters to target - Brewers
- William Contreras, RH (+320) - Hitting .406 with three home runs off lefties since July 1.
- Willy Adames, RH (+340) - Has a 43.8% fly-ball rate, with two HR and a .280 average, vs. LHP last five weeks.
- Joey Wiemer, RH (+450) - Has two HR, .259 average, 40.9% FB rate since July 1 vs. lefties.
- Christian Yelich, LH (+400) - Hitting .242 off LHP last five weeks, but also worth a look against bullpen arms.
- Mark Canha, RH (+440) - Hitting just .160 in seven games with Milwaukee, but much higher HR/AB vs. LHP than righties.
Best betting value: Joey Wiemer (+450)
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels (Angels Park, 9:38 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Scott Alexander* (LHP) |
0.27 | 5.0 | 18.7 | 4.6 |
 Lucas Giolito (RHP) |
1.73 | 15.2 | 45.6 | 11.1 |
*Will serve in an opener role
Alexander will purely serve in an opener role for the San Francisco Giants, who will follow with a full bullpen game. The Giants relievers have been among the league's best since July 1 but will be tested against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that is eighth in dingers over that same span.
While that is a good-vs-good matchup, the other side is who will stink more: A Giants lineup that is 29th in homers over the last five weeks... or Lucas Giolito, who gave up three homers in his last outing, multiple homers in three of his last four starts, and a dinger in 15 of his last 16 games.
PLUS... after Giolito is an Angels bullpen that has the second-worst HR/9 (1.89) since the beginning of July.
Hitters to target - Giants
- Wilmer Flores, RH (+350) - Hitting .339 vs. RHP since July 1, with five homers and a 44.9% fly-ball rate.
- Michael Conforto, LH (+460)- Has a .283 average against righties since July, with a 40.8% FB rate.
- Joc Pederson, LH (+300) - Sporting a 43.1% FB rate and three homers vs. RHP over this stretch.
- J.D. Davis, RH (+430) - Has three HR off RHP during this span, also homered yesterday vs. LAA.
- Lamonte Wade Jr., LH (+420) - Has four hits in his last seven ABs, plus a 39.5% FB rate vs. RHP since July 1.
Hitters to target - Angels
- Shohei Ohtani, LH (+320) - Duh. Hitting .301 overall with 10 HR and 38.5% FB rate since July 1.
- Luis Rengifo, SH (+500) - Less obvious, but hitting .300 with seven home runs and a 38.2% fly-ball rate during the same span.
- Mike Moustakas, LH (+700) - Has a 42% FB rate, .274 average, and five dingers last five weeks.
- Mickey Moniak, LH (+680) - Four homers and a .293 average during this stretch.
- Hunter Renfroe, RH (+470) - Hot over the last two weeks, hitting .296 with two HR.
Best betting value: Joc Pederson (+320)
Last week's recap:
- SD at COL: Three HR (inc. best value pick)
- BOS at SEA: Three HR
- Game with most HR: CIN/CHC (Eight HR)
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