The Minnesota Twins continue to close the gap with the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.
Coming off back-to-back wins over the Guardians, the Twins are a -120 moneyline favorite in the MLB odds tonight and look poised for another strong outing.
Find out where my best bets lie in my Guardians vs. Twins predictions and MLB picks on Saturday, August 10.
Guardians vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Gavin Williams Over 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins have been surging as of late and sit just 1.5 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central. But to keep the good times rolling and close the gap even further, they’ll need to continue swinging for the fences against a struggling Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams.
The 25-year-old Williams has been sporadic at best this season with a 4.91 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in seven starts. Coming off his worst start of the year — eight hits, six earned runs, and two homers allowed in four innings — Williams is bound to struggle again tonight.
The former first-round pick has allowed at least five hits in four of seven starts this season, including three of his last four. He’s basically had only three solid starts this year, and two of them came in early July.
After missing the first few months of the season with an elbow injury, it’s been clear that Williams isn’t quite himself after turning in a solid rookie season last year. He’s allowing 5.1 hits per start and his four-seamer, which he uses 56.4% of the time, has been pulverized.
Williams is allowing opponents to hit .313 against his four-seamer with a .495 xSLG, and it doesn’t get much better the deeper he goes into his arsenal. With three of his four other pitches, opponents are hitting .364-plus against two of them and have a .545 SLG or better against three of them.
That’s music to this mashing Twins’ lineups ears. Minnesota ranks fourth in the AL in batting average (.253), SLG (.429), and total bases (1,671) while cranking the fifth-most home runs (140).
This team has been particularly strong against four-seamers, which spells trouble for Williams, especially with the way he’s struggled to use his fastball this season.
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Guardians vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Gavin Williams Over 4.5 hits allowed
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 hits
Steven Kwan Over 0.5 hits
Part of the reason Williams is in for a long night is because of Royce Lewis. When Lewis is healthy, he’s one of the best young bats in baseball. And he appears to be healthy after missing the bulk of July.
Since returning to Minnesota’s lineup, he’s racked up seven hits in eight games with at least one in five of those outings. The third baseman is also known for mashing four-seamers, which will come in handy against Williams.
Lewis is batting .280 with a .760 SLG against four-seamers this season after hammering them last year with a .333 average and .815 SLG.
Finally, batting over .300 against any pitch is impressive — let alone doing it for a whole season against all pitches — but that’s what Steven Kwan has been doing.
He’s second in the AL in batting average (.327) and should continue to put up numbers against Minnesota starter Simeon Woods-Richardson. Kwan is batting .333 or higher against two of his four top offerings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Twins odds
Guardians vs Twins live odds
Guardians vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 | Minnesota -1.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland +106 | Minnesota -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Guardians vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off 4-2 and 6-3 wins over the Guardians, the Twins opened as a -115 to -125 moneyline favorite and remain there.
- Cleveland is leading the AL Central at 67-49 but has lost seven straight games, while Minnesota has won seven of its last nine and sits at 65-50.
- The Over/Under opened between 8 and 8.5 with minimal movement. The Under 8 is being offered at plus or even-money at a few books.
- Both Minnesota and Cleveland are among the top half of the league for betting the Over. The Twins are 60-52-3 and the Guardians are 57-52-7.
Guardians vs Twins trend
The Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 32 games at home (+16.75 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Twins.
Guardians vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Ohio, Bally North |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (1-4, 4.91 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Simeon Woods-Richardson (3-2, 3.87 ERA) |
Guardians vs Twins latest injuries
Guardians vs Twins weather
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