The home run vibes are high heading into the Friday slate, with some great spots to look for MLB player props, despite the weather still not in bettors' favor.
I'm going indoors with the Jays back home and some home-run potential on both sides of the field, and taking the easy route with one of the best home-run hitters facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball at +EV prices.
Plus, I'm backing a Cubs bat to keep his recent hot streak going.
These are my favorite HR props for Friday, April 24.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
+610 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
+320 |
 Michael Busch |
+520 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +14581 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+610)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might not be the home-run hitter he was in 2021, but +610 is a big price for an indoor game with a bland home-run setting on Friday’s board.
His swing speed is still elite, and his Blast Contact numbers are strong — he just needs to improve that launch angle, as he ranks last on the team in Ideal Attack Angle%. He needs to elevate the ball, and there are signs he can against Gavin Williams.
Guerrero has taken Williams deep once in eight career at-bats, and the Cleveland Guardians starter struggled with HR/FB% last year. That number looks even worse early this season, and his ground-ball rate could regress toward his career norms, and his .167 BABIP is unsustainable.
There’s a price point for any Guerrero home run in a favorable setting, and it starts at +600 or better. The fair price on this four-bagger is around +540.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN1, Guardians.TV
Munetaka Murakami (+320)
Let’s get a taste of the good life with one of the best home-run bats in baseball, at home, facing Miles Mikolas.
Munetaka Murakami just had his five-game homer streak snapped, but this may be the best matchup of that stretch. He’s 12-for-27, and every extra-base hit has left the yard. When he gets the ball in the air, it’s leaving at an incredible 39% clip.
Mikolas has been one of the worst HR/FB pitchers in baseball, and his early-season struggles have pushed that even lower. The only thing that can slow Murakami is swing-and-miss, which isn’t a major concern against Mikolas.
Despite the production, this price still shows value, with a fair line around +260.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, CHSN
Michael Busch (+520)
It took some time, but Michael Busch has found his power stroke, going deep in back-to-back games. Now he enters a strong matchup tonight at Dodger Stadium.
The No. 2 hitter for the Chicago Cubs still profiles as a 30-HR bat in a favorable hitting environment with winds blowing out to center. Emmet Sheehan is a solid target for home runs, ranking near the bottom of MLB starters in Blast Contact% while allowing plenty of fly balls — with nearly 20% leaving the yard this year.
Chicago enters on a nine-game win streak, gets the full nine innings on the road, and this home run price should be closer to +430.
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV+
- HR picks: 5-43, -13.4 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
Bet Now +14581 |
| Munetaka Murakami |
|
| Michael Busch |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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