The home run vibes are high heading into the Friday slate, with some great spots to look for MLB player props, despite the weather still not in bettors' favor.
I'm going indoors with the Jays back home and some home-run potential on both sides of the field, and taking the easy route with one of the best home-run hitters facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball at +EV prices.
These are my favorite HR props for Friday, April 24.
Best MLB home run props today
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Munetaka Murakami
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+610)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might not be the home-run hitter he was in 2021, but +610 is a big price for an indoor game with a bland home-run setting on Friday’s board.
His swing speed is still elite, and his Blast Contact numbers are strong — he just needs to improve that launch angle, as he ranks last on the team in Ideal Attack Angle%. He needs to elevate the ball, and there are signs he can against Gavin Williams.
Guerrero has taken Williams deep once in eight career at-bats, and the Cleveland Guardians starter struggled with HR/FB% last year. That number looks even worse early this season, and his ground-ball rate could regress toward his career norms, and his .167 BABIP is unsustainable.
There’s a price point for any Guerrero home run in a favorable setting, and it starts at +600 or better. The fair price on this four-bagger is around +540.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN1, Guardians.TV
Munetaka Murakami (+320)
Let’s get a taste of the good life with one of the best home-run bats in baseball, at home, facing Miles Mikolas.
Munetaka Murakami just had his five-game homer streak snapped, but this may be the best matchup of that stretch. He’s 12-for-27, and every extra-base hit has left the yard. When he gets the ball in the air, it’s leaving at an incredible 39% clip.
Mikolas has been one of the worst HR/FB pitchers in baseball, and his early-season struggles have pushed that even lower. The only thing that can slow Murakami is swing-and-miss, which isn’t a major concern against Mikolas.
Despite the production, this price still shows value, with a fair line around +260.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, CHSN
- HR picks: 5-43, -13.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
