Behind ace Parker Messick, the Cleveland Guardians are -122 moneyline favorites for today's series finale against the Detroit Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park.
With Messick in wonderful form, my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions are backing the visitors in the rubber match.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, August 13.
Who will win Guardians vs Tigers today: Guardians (-126)
The Cleveland Guardians should feel confident with Parker Messick taking the ball. The left-hander owns a 2.80 FIP over his last five outings while allowing just 0.73 BB/9 and 1.09 HR/9.
Messick is consistently pounding the strike zone, and he has held opponents to a 4.3% barrel rate during that span. The Detroit Tigers are in good offensive form, but Messick’s recent profile can quiet this lineup.
On the other side, Keider Montero has a 5.58 FIP across his previous two starts while giving up 1.50 HR/9. He has also allowed a 41.7% hard-hit rate, and Cleveland is hot, carrying a 118 wRC+ over the last week.
I’ll take Cleveland behind Messick. Play this pick up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Cleveland’s recent surge is well above its season baseline. The Guardians own a 112 wRC+ over their last 11 games compared to a 95 mark on the year, giving them a stronger offensive profile against a vulnerable Montero.
Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)
While the Cleveland bullpen hasn’t been great lately, with a 4.82 xERA over its last 22 frames, it has held opponents to 0.82 HR/9. The Tigers, despite their recent offensive success, have also posted a brutal .097 ISO over the last week.
As for the Detroit relief corps, it can limit the damage once Montero exits. The Tigers’ pen owns a 2.61 xERA over the last week while surrendering just 0.44 HR/9. The Guardians have just a .142 ISO across their last six games as well.
I expect Cleveland to score some runs off Montero, but overall, this should be a lower-scoring finale.
Play the Under to -140.
Guardians vs Tigers home run prediction: Jo Adell (+474)
Jo Adell came through on Wednesday and homered after my prediction, and I'm eyeing him again today. The slugger has two bombs in his last six games and a 15% barrel rate over the last two weeks while posting a hard-hit rate well over 40%.
Montero has allowed 40.5% of his contact in the air over the last month, and Adell is consistently getting lift on the baseball, with a 60% fly-ball rate in that span.
Considering Montero's vulnerability to mistakes, Adell is a good candidate for another bomb.
Play this pick down to +400.
- ML/RL bets: 50-59, -16.47 units
- Over/Under bets: 60-46, +7.01 units
Guardians vs Tigers weather
Weather looks calm and clean this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds are light around 4-5 mph, and rain chances are very low, topping out around 6% by 4 p.m. Conditions should be neutral overall, with no real delay concerns or major scoring boost.
Guardians vs Tigers odds
- Moneyline: Guardians -122 | Tigers +117
- Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+150) | Tigers +1.5 (-156)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Guardians vs Tigers trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.20 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.
How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Thursday, August 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CleGuardians.TV, DSN |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Parker Messick (9-6, 2.57 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Keider Montero (8-7, 3.38 ERA) |
Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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