Guardians vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Mckenzie Leads Cleveland to Another Victory

The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians will wrap up a four-game series on Thursday night.

It's starting to look like Boston will be sellers at the deadline after falling to last place in the AL East. It has struggled mightily over the last month and has lost two of three in this series. Cleveland is the inverse of this in many ways. It started to surge in the race for a playoff spot and has won seven of its last ten. This recent streak has put it just 1.5 games behind the divisional-leading Minnesota Twins.

Will Cleveland take the series, or can the BoSox grab a split? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Red Sox on Thursday, July 28.

Guardians vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today's odds opened up with the Guardians as slight favorites of -115. Odds have stayed the same since then, and you're seeing the Red Sox returning at around +105.

The total opened up at 9.0 and has also stayed there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs Red Sox predictions

• Prediction: Guardians F5 ML (-120)
• Prediction: Over 9 (-110)
• Best bet: McKenzie to record win (+135)

Picks made on 7/28/2022 at 1:47 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Guardians vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, July 28, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, NESN

Guardians vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Triston McKenzie (7-6, 3.11 ERA): Perhaps the most key hurler in the Guardians arsenal, Triston McKenzie has had a solid season thus far. Has there been a better pitcher than him in July? I'm not sure I can find him. McKenzie has given up one — yes one — earned run over 26 innings. One of those outings was at the start of the month against the New York Yankees, where he pitched seven scoreless innings. To say McKenzie's season has been up-and-down would be an understatement. Look no further than a month ago for evidence of that. He posted an era of over six then. It's difficult to predict where his season will turn next, but I think it's closer to what we've seen this month. Then, of course, you'll see some regression, but an elite K rate should take him reasonably far.

Kutter Crawford (2-3, 4.50 ERA): This has been a rookie season for Kutter Crawford, more or less, and it's been an up-and-down one. Crawford has an average exit velocity that ranks near the bottom of all qualified pitchers, but he has a high-end K rate to compensate for it. Unfortunately, Crawford has had two back-to-back rough starts. In those two games combined, he surrendered six runs in 11 innings and was probably lucky to do that. Crawford is a fastball, and cutter pitcher, with the two pitches making up over 70% of his pitching arsenal. 

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Guardians are 5-1 in their last six after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox

Guardians vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It's hard to find many reasons to back this Red Sox team. They are finding ways to lose and going against a team tonight that is trending in the exact opposite direction. So I won't. I'll look to back the team with both the pitching edge and the momentum edge in the Cleveland Guardians.

I'd assume that if the Guardians get the Triston McKenzie they've got this month, they'll be in the playoffs. I think that's a highly safe assumption, but it's also unlikely to continue. Still, it doesn't mean it stops here, and he has the matchup in his favor. 

Without a healthy Rafael Devers in the lineup, Boston is left with fewer options of players that hit the four-seam fastball with great success. They are still there and capable of doing damage, but it's hard to back many of them who have been in such a slump. However, aside from that, the more pressing issue is Boston's swing rate and its problem.

If you look through the common opponents of this month of dominance for McKenzie, they've all featured one common element, (minus the Yankees). That element? They've all ranked in the Top 10 in swing rate. The White Sox rank second, the Tigers rank sixth, the Royals rank eighth, and the Red Sox rank seventh.

Against the three teams mentioned above, McKenzie allowed just one earned run. A combination of his pitching and the Red Sox playing make it challenging to see a different result today.

As for Kutter Crawford's matchup against the Guardians, I'm not sure it's the best one. His success is predicated on swings and misses and avoiding contact. This is evidenced by an elite K rate and above-average whiff rate. There isn't a more challenging team in baseball to strike out than the Guardians.

Not only do they have the highest chase contact rate in baseball, but they also have the highest zone contact rate in baseball. In other words, when a batter comes to the plate for Cleveland, they are putting the ball in the play. Those matchups, in particular, have hurt Crawford, and I expect no different today.

I'm confidently backing the Guardians today. My projections see the most significant edge in the first five market, so that's where I'll place my bet.

Prediction: Guardians first five innings moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

It will be a hot and windy night in Fenway Park, making conditions favorable for extra-base hits and naturally run scoring. So we're rolling with the Over. 

Although I like the trajectory of McKenzie's season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him give up a few runs today. However, the nature of his pitching means he could surrender a few and still have a dominant performance. That's because, like any fastball throwing, when teams connect with him, they connect pretty hard.

It's why his hard-hit rate and barrel rate both rank below the league average. These things are compounded when the wind blows out to left field like it will be tonight, giving the ball more carry. If the Guardians do what I expect them to do at the plate, then we shouldn't need much from the other side to get this over.

Speaking of that Guardian matchup, Crawford produces a pretty high amount of fly-ball hits at around 35% compared to the league average of 23%. But, again, the same thing holds for him. Those fly balls become more of an issue when the wind blows out, and you have power hitters like Josh Naylor or Jose Ramirez at the plate.

It seems reasonably likely that Crawford or others will give up a longball or two, and I think that's all they'll need to get this one Over.

I like runs to be scored tonight, but I wouldn't go overboard. My projections only see little value, with this total priced at -120. But still, the general parameters of two pitchers who give up hard hits and winds blowing out make this one seem pretty clear cut. 

Prediction: Over 9 (-110 at Circa)

Best bet

As I mentioned at the onset, McKenzie has had one of the best months of any pitcher. He's on a real streak of dominance right now, so why not back him with our best bet?

If we're backing the Guardians to have the lead after five innings and we know that McKenzie has gone over five innings for five straight starts, then the best bet becomes obvious. Let's back McKenzie to get the win.

I expect him to continue his fun of dominance against a free-swinging Red Sox team that is at a significantly low point of their season. In addition, Cleveland will have some success against a starting pitcher that will give it too much to hit. We're fading the BoSox tonight, but we're also backing the strength of the pitching matchup for a hot team. 

Triston McKenzie Prop Pick: To record a win (+135)

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