We are in for another great day of action on the diamond with 10 games on the MLB schedule which means there is plenty of betting value to be found in the player prop market.
Today, we bring you a trio of pitcher props, which includes fading the quickly imploding Boston Red Sox when they take on the Cleveland Guardians, and backing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to bounce back in his start against the Texas Rangers.
Check out our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday, July 28.
MLB props for July 28
Picks made on 7/28/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Wheelin & dealin
Outside of a start against the Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies' pitcher Zack Wheeler has been one of baseball’s best and most reliable starters since the beginning of May. He'll look to keep rolling when he toes the rubber tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Take away that start against the Jays (who to be fair have been beating up on almost everyone lately), and Wheeler has allowed just one earned run on 12 hits in 21 innings of work over three starts in July, pitching at least seven innings in each.
He enters this matchup with a 2.86 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .222 opponent batting average. Wheeler is also striking out a solid 9.8 batters per nine over his last 14 starts. That means he should have a significant edge against this Pirates lineup.
That’s because the Buccos really struggle against right-handers, ranking 28th in OPS and wRC+, and are next to last in K-rate when facing righties. That sets up well for Wheeler to pitch deep into another ball game. He’s gone Over 18.5 outs recorded eight times over his last 14 starts and five times in his last seven. Wheeler should get close to seven innings, putting the value on the Over 18.5.
Zack Wheeler Prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (-110)
Faded Red Sox
Fading the Boston Red Sox in as many ways as possible seems like a profitable idea at the moment. The BoSox are in a freefall, and it doesn’t look like they are going pull out of it any time soon.
They‘ve lost 11 of their last 13 games and are officially behind the Baltimore Orioles, sitting in the basement in the American League East as they enter tonight’s matchup against the Cleveland Guardians.
Today, the fade comes in the form of backing Guardians’ starter Triston McKenzie to go Over his strikeout prop tonight. The number is set at 5.5, a number McKenzie has eclipsed five times in his last seven starts. The right-hander has seen his strikeout numbers bump up recently, striking out 9.4 batters per nine over his last seven starts.
McKenzie has a great shot to keep that up against the Red Sox, who have the worst strikeout rate in baseball over this ugly 13-game stretch and are getting punched out 10 times per game since coming out of the All-Star break.
The Guardians starter has been solid most of the season with a 3.98 xERA and faces a Boston lineup that ranks 29th in batting average and 26th in OPS over that same stretch, so McKenzie should be able to pitch reasonably deep into the ball game and give himself plenty of opportunities to go Over this number once again.
Triston McKenzie Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+108)
The Sho goes on
Shohei Ohtani takes the ball for the Los Angeles Angels for tonight’s game against the visiting Texas Rangers. You can still get Ohtani at +1,200 to win the American League Cy Young Award, but that price might not last after this start against Texas.
Ohtani saw a streak of winning six consecutive starts come to an end last time out as the Atlanta Braves got to him for six runs on six hits. But even with that tough start, the reigning AL MVP’s numbers are still eye popping.
The two-way star owns a very good 2.46 xERA and is limiting opponents to a .197 xBA. Ohtani is also striking out opponents at a ridiculous rate. He ranks in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate and is punching out 12.9 batters per nine innings.
He’s taken that to the next level over his last five starts where he has struck out 57 batters in his last 33 innings of work, racking up double-digit strikeouts in each.
Ohtani will get the face to keep racking up the strikeouts tonight against the Rangers. Texas ranks 20th in strikeouts per game and 23rd in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Combine that with a lineup that ranks 20th in batting average and 26th in OPS against righties, and Ohtani should be able to pitch deep into this game and approach double-digit strikeouts for the sixth straight game.
Shohei Ohtani Prop: Over 8.5 strikeouts (+110)
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