Happy April Fools' Day, though our MLB best bets are certainly no joke with today's loaded slate.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow baseball bettors from coast-to-coast a chance to lock in their favorite plays, and our baseball experts are chiming in with their favorite MLB picks today — plus we're offering some extra MLB expert picks from the rest of the Covers staff for Wednesday, April 1.
- UPDATE: Added NYY/SEA best bet.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Reds ML |
+140 |
 Neil Parker: Twins ML |
-108 |
 Joe Osborne: MIN/KC u8.5 |
-113 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Reds moneyline
Price: 40¢ (+140) at Polymarket
This isn’t about fading Paul Skenes — it’s about backing the value on Andrew Abbott, who has the ability to trade zeroes in this matchup. THE BAT projects a fair price closer to 48%, compared to the current market around 40%, creating a solid edge. It’s also worth noting that over Skenes’ last 33 starts, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 17–16 straight up — a reminder that elite pitching doesn’t always translate to wins.
With this being a getaway day for Pittsburgh, the lineup could be in a tougher spot generating runs.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
Twins starter Joe Ryan is 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across 11 career starts against Kansas City, and the Royals have only scored nine times through their first four games. Additionally, Kansas City starter Noah Cameron outpitched his underlying numbers last season, with his 2.99 ERA well below his 4.10 xFIP and alongside an unsustainably good .241 BABIP and 84% strand rate.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Twins/Royals Under 8.5
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
This is too high a number for two light-hitting teams, which rank 23rd and 28th in OPS and are a combined 7-1 to the Under so far. Ryan has owned Royals’ hitters, holding them to a .582 OPS across 110 at-bats, while Cameron draws a Twins lineup that's posted a pathetic .458 OPS vs. lefties so far (and he had a 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3 innings of work vs. Minnesota last year).
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| SEA ML | -112 |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Mariners predictions | |
| BOS ML | -141 |
| Read analysis in our Red Sox vs. Astros predictions | |
| DET -1.5 | +105 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Diamondbacks predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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