Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions: Let Sleeping Bats Lie

Tyler Anderson has been a great find for the perpetually excellent Dodgers and he should help keep this showdown with the Diamondbacks below its total over the first five innings on Monday night. Our betting picks like a low-scoring game.

Last Updated: Sep 11, 2022 10:42 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tyler Anderson Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are on a roll, winning four of their last five, and will send Las Vegas native Tyler Anderson to the mound with the hopes of extending their 30-game lead over NL West rival Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D-Backs are riding the struggle bus, having dropped four of their last five, and will look to Henderson, NV native Ryne Nelson to tame the big Dodgers bats.

Who will win the Battle for Clark County? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks on September 12.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks best odds

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions

There's so much juice in this game, but the best play is the Under 4.5 runs in the first five innings.

Arizona is playing .500 ball over their past 10, but have lost four of their last five and scored a total of 31 runs (23 in Colorado) during this 1-4 slump.

Tyler Anderson has been solid for Los Angeles. He pitches deep into ballgames and has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his previous six starts. 

The crafty lefty isn’t the biggest strikeout guy, but he’s up against an Arizona offense ranked 10th in strikeout rate with the 20th fewest runs scored vs. lefties. A couple of extra free outs never hurts, and he should get those on Monday.

Arizona also ranks 20th in ISO, 24th in wRC+, and has a team slash line of .234/.302/.376/.678 and that won’t get the job done against Anderson. Anderson has owned this collection of Arizona bats, and the Diamondbacks have slashed .227/.306/.326/.632 with 32 punchouts over 144 career at-bats against him.

Ryne Nelson made the type of debut kids dream about. He stifled the Padres at Petco over seven innings and became the second pitcher in history to throw seven scoreless innings without an earned run or a walk in their MLB debut. 

He had the strikeout-prone Padres spinning in the batter's box, and he’ll need his “A” game again Monday, otherwise, the Dodgers are going to smash him.

The Dodgers are first in runs scored, first in ISO, and also lead the majors with a +122 wRC+. Los Angeles has a high walk rate and doesn’t whiff often against right-handed pitching.

Los Angeles on the road isn’t quite as good as the numbers above. They boast the most away runs scored, but rank 2nd in ISO and wRC+. The difference is subtle, but it’s there.

The Dodgers lefty will do his part and if Nelson can keep the Dodgers bats off balance, he’ll likely be able to keep Arizona in this ballgame, and we hit the F5 Under.

My best bet: Under 4.5 runs in first-five innings (-103 at FanDuel)

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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks betting preview

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Side analysis Over/Under analysis Starting pitchers Injuries Weather Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

The juice is much too high for us to back the Dodgers, but Los Angeles is going to win this game.

The Dodgers arrive in Phoenix with a 20-game lead in the NL West standings and have won six of their last 10 and four of their last five.

Arizona isn’t nearly as bad as its record indicates, but the D-Backs aren’t playing very good baseball and will have a difficult time beating an elite Los Angeles team with one its steadiest starters on the mound.

The Dodgers are 46-21 this season as away favorites, facing an Arizona side with a 20-22 record as home underdogs with an overall 37-34 record at Chase Field. 

Finally, Los Angeles is 12-8 when Anderson pitches as the away favorite, and he’ll win the Battle for Clark County!

Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 9.0, and this is a solid number for this showdown.

I suspect Nelson is going to want to show the elder Anderson his stuff, and he has the arsenal to keep the Dodgers bats quiet for a while. He favors his fastball, which averaged around 95 mph in his MLB debut, but he throws four pitches.

The Under is 3-1-1 over their last five meetings and 37-30-5 when the Dodgers are the away side. The Under is also 36-32-3 when Arizona plays at home this season.

Finally, Anderson has made easy work over his career against these Diamondbacks and while Los Angeles will likely post a few runs, this one should end Under the total.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info

Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Monday, September 12, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet LA, Bally Sports Arizona

Starting pitchers

Tyler Anderson (14-3, 2.73 ERA): The Dodgers are 10-2 over Anderson's past 12 starts. He’s allowed 10 earned runs with 20 strikeouts over his previous five starts. Anderson has an excellent 3.18 xERA with a 4.15 xFIP.

Ryne Nelson (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Nelson is making his second big-league start after shutting out the Padres over seven innings in San Diego. Nelson scattered four hits with seven punchouts in a dominating performance. The young hurler throws mostly fastballs, a straight change, and mixes in a pretty decent slider.  

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

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