The League Championship Series has arrived, so get that popcorn popping because we're in for one hell of a Game 1, with Tarik Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski taking the rubber this evening.
For this write-up, we're hoping for a few missed spots and some hitters teeing off against these star aces. Here are our three favorite Dodgers vs. Brewers home run predictions and MLB picks for tonight's matchup.
Best Dodgers vs Brewers home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Freddie Freeman |
10% |
 Jackson Chourio |
16% |
| Long shot: Jake Bauers |
13% |
| 💲HR combo | 285.81x |
Dodgers home run pick: Freddie Freeman
In a matchup that could feature a low-scoring affair, the long ball may be the best source of runs against these two dominant arms. So why not kick things off by backing the guy making the most quality contact this postseason? Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman.
The future Hall of Famer has already crushed two home runs this postseason while posting a .267 batting average, .667 SLG and 1.020 OPS through four games. During that stretch, he's generated a near-85% hard-hit rate and a 30.8% barrel rate.
Standing in his way is one of baseball's hardest throwers, Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jacob Misiorowski. He's throwing fastballs 63% of the time, and if you've been living under a rock, the kid throws absolute lasers down the pipe.
To close out the regular season, the last 60 left-handed hitters Misiorowski faced posted a .310 xBA and .489 xSLG, with an elevation rate above 60%. He's faced just eight left-handed batters in one start this postseason, making it easy to argue that the Dodgers' left-handed bats present a different challenge.
Playable to 13%.
Brewers home run pick: Jackson Chourio
On the other side, you have a Brewers lineup facing Dodgers star southpaw Tarik Skubal, who has quietly been giving up plenty of quality contact to right-handed hitters this postseason. In the small sample of 14 right-handed hitters he's faced, they've posted a 12.5% barrel rate, 50% fly-ball rate and .721 xSLG. Skubal has also allowed 2.46 HR/9 during that stretch.
Brewers' young star Jackson Chourio offers some value, as he covers 92% of Skubal's pitch mix, per Batters-Box. On top of that, Chourio has maintained a .697 xSLG this postseason while producing a 12.5% barrel rate.
To close out the regular season, Chourio posted a mouthwatering .964 slugging percentage and .464 ISO in his last 30 at-bats against southpaws, along with a near-70% elevation rate and 11.5% barrel rate.
With Chourio among the hottest bats in this lineup and Skubal showing some underlying issues, the young slugger offers value to go Ya-Ya.
Playable down to 18%.
Long-shot home run pick: Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers enters Sunday with the highest matchup rating on Batters-Box's current-season ratings, earning a strong rating while covering more than 93% of Tarik Skubal's pitch mix.
As mentioned above, Skubal has struggled against left-handed hitters this postseason. While he's been solid overall, the last 60 lefties he faced to close out the regular season were pretty lively, posting a near-70% elevation rate, .340 expected batting average and .488 expected slugging percentage.
Bauers closed out the regular season with a 47.1% hard-hit rate and a near-12% barrel rate against the last 30 left-handed pitchers he faced.
At 13%, Bauers offers some solid value from the left side of the dish. Take this down to 15% at most.
Dodgers vs Brewers home run combo
Combining Freeman, Chourio, and Bauers offers a high-risk, high-reward approach to this matchup. Each hitter has underlying contact or power metrics that support the home run case, but the listed combo price reflects the long odds of all three hitting a home run in the same game.
This is best treated as a small-stake lottery play rather than a core wager, especially given the quality of both starters.
- HR picks: 135-476, +25.10 units
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