Our Dodgers vs. Brewers expert picks are fairly split ahead of Game 1 of the NLCS, with one expert backing Los Angeles to plate some runs while another expects the home team to strike first.
The pitching matchup is the main attraction in our MLB picks, as Tarik Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski square off at American Family Field on Sunday, Oct. 11.
Dodgers vs Brewers expert picks for Game 1
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Dodgers TT o2.5 |
57% |
 Todd Cordell: Brewers ML |
53% |
 Colby Marchio: Skubal o1.5 earned runs |
50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers team total Over 2.5
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
The Dodgers’ team total Over 2.5 is priced at 57%, but THE BAT gives it a 68% fair probability. The Dodgers will get all their at-bats as the visitors, and Jacob Misiorowski is far from bulletproof — nor is he likely to go 21 outs.
In his only other postseason start, Misiorowski went four innings and allowed two runs in a 3-2 win.
There’s also a theory that higher-velocity pitchers can be more vulnerable in the postseason, with hitters better equipped to catch up to premium velocity. Either way, the Dodgers scoring at least three runs today is one of the best expected-value plays I’ve seen this postseason.
Todd Cordell's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
I like Milwaukee to take the series opener, and I would play this to 53% in my Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions.
The pitching matchup between Jacob Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal is as good as it gets, but I give Miz an ever-so-slight edge. In a game like this, splitting hairs is necessary.
Misiorowski finished in the 100th percentile in K%, 99th in xERA, and 96th in barrel rate. That is the kind of clean profile needed to best Los Angeles in a playoff setting.
Skubal only ranked in the 91st percentile in K%, 90th in xERA, and 65th in barrel rate. Factor in that some key Dodgers bats like Shohei Ohtani (.243 xwOBA) and Will Smith (.086 xwOBA) are struggling, and scoring against Miz will be even more difficult.
Colby Marchio's expert pick: Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 earned runs
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
In the small sample of 14 right-handed hitters Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal has faced, they've posted a 12.5% barrel rate, 50% fly-ball rate, and .721 xSLG. Skubal has also allowed 2.46 HR/9 during that stretch.
With roughly six right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight, the Brewers have several opportunities to expose Skubal’s early struggles in my Dodgers vs. Brewers prop picks.
Although Skubal enters Sunday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, he's allowed two or more earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts with an elite rating. Not to mention, he's gone over his elite matchup strikeout percentage in six of those 10 outings.
On top of that, the entire state of Wisconsin will be backing the Brewers this evening. The adrenaline will be there, and the momentum could swing quickly if they get to Skubal early and often.
How to watch Dodgers vs Brewers
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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