The NLCS is here, and we're ready for a heavyweight Game 1 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers under the lights. Let's find some value and kick this series off with a bang!
Here are my three favorite Dodgers vs. Brewers prop picks and MLB player props ahead of first pitch at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Best Dodgers vs Brewers props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 earned runs |
50% |
 Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
47% |
| Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 walks |
45% |
Prop pick #1: Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 earned runs
In the small sample of 14 right-handed hitters Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal has faced, they've posted a 12.5% barrel rate, 50% fly-ball rate and .721 xSLG. Skubal has also allowed 2.46 HR/9 during that stretch.
With roughly six hitters batting from the right side this evening, the Milwaukee Brewers have several opportunities to expose Skubal's early struggles.
Although Skubal enters Sunday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, he's allowed 2+ earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts with an elite rating. Not to mention, he's gone Over his elite matchup strikeout percentage in six of those 10 outings.
On top of that, the entire state of Wisconsin will be backing the Brewers this evening. The adrenaline will be there, and the momentum could swing quickly if they get to Skubal early and often.
Don't pay juice for this prop. If you need an alternative, take the Brewers' first-five team total Over 1.5. The price is better than this prop, and it gives you some insurance against a potential error.
Prop pick #2: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Despite entering Game 1 with just a favorable rating on Batters-Box, Milwaukee Brewers star Jackson Chourio still has some strong trends working in his favor. Across 148 favorable ratings, he's gone over this prop 55.41% of the time. Not to mention, he's recorded a hit nearly 73% of the time and a single 58% of the time.
Chourio also covers 92% of Tarik Skubal's pitch mix. He's been nails this postseason, posting a .697 xSLG and a 12.5% barrel rate.
With Skubal's struggles against right-handed hitters, Chourio is my favorite look to find success at the dish.
Again, don't pay juice for this prop. Take this up to 50%.
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Prop pick #3: Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 walks
We live to sweat, right? We live for the rush. Let's find some value and back Tarik Skubal to dish out a few free passes this evening.
The veteran southpaw hasn't been a high-walk pitcher this season, posting just a 4.3% walk rate overall and an even lower mark below 3% on the road. In his previous outing, however, he issued two free passes to the Braves.
Now, Skubal draws a Brewers lineup that's been extremely patient at the plate this season, especially against lefties at home, where Milwaukee sports a 9.1% walk rate. Overall at home this season, the Brewers ranked second in baseball with a walk rate below 11%.
With so much on the line, someone's bound to slip up, and for some reason, this writer is picking heavily on Skubal.
Take this up to 50%.
- Prop picks: 556-1122, +1.10 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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