Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is off to yet another hot start in the desert, and Rohit Ponnaiya expects Arizona's hard-hitting outfielder to stay that way in a favorable matchup against a struggling Chicago starter. Read more in our Cubs vs. Diamondbacks betting picks.

Apr 16, 2024 • 13:46 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB
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The Chicago Cubs take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in MLB action on Tuesday night. This is the second game in a three-game set at Chase Field, with the Cubbies prevailing 3-2 as +137 underdogs last night.

The Cubs are now 10-6 while the D-Backs are one game below .500, but oddsmakers are installing Arizona as a slim -125 favorite. Here are my best free Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for April 16.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction

My best bet
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

The Arizona Diamondbacks were the worst team in the majors in 2021, but they have since turned things around and proved so by clinching the National League pennant last year. Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was a key part of that turnaround, racking up 255 total bases in 145 games.

Gurriel has gone 0-9 at the plate over his last two starts, but he had been red-hot before that stretch, slashing .317/.369/.567 through the first 14 games of the season. The analytics back up his improved hitting with his expected slugging percentage sitting at a career-high .529 and his hard hit rate (52.5%) just outside the Top 10 percentile. 

Gurriel should be in line for a good night today with the Chicago Cubs sending struggling veteran Kyle Hendricks to the mound. The long-time starter was once the ace of Chicago's rotation, but he has pitched to a mediocre 4.43 ERA with an OBA of .266 over the last three seasons. He has been even worse this year, allowing at least five earned runs in all three of his starts and posting an ugly 12.08 ERA with an OBA of .419. 

Hendricks relies heavily on a sinker and changeup combination, and opposing batters have been mashing both offerings this season. Gurriel has an incredible .600 slugging percentage against sinkers this year and slugged .490 versus sinkers and .488 against changeups in 2023. 

In five at-bats against the Cubs right-hander, Gurriel has picked up three hits. With this game taking place at a ballpark that inflates extra-base hits, back the hard-hitting D-Back to go Over 1.5 total bases. 

Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 total bases

Diamondbacks moneyline

Tommy Henry Under 3.5 earned runs

Given how terrible Hendricks has looked this season, I'm leaning towards the home side bouncing back with a win today. 

Arizona starter Tommy Henry faces a Cubs squad that is averaging just 2.8 runs per game with an OPS of .555 over the last week. Chicago's struggling lineup also just suffered a blow, as Seiya Suzuki has been sent to the 10-day IL with a right oblique strain. 

Henry was lit up in his season debut against the lowly Rockies but he has allowed two earned runs through five innings in each of his last two starts. Going back to last season, the 26-year-old lefty has allowed fewer than 3.5 runs in eight of his last 10 starts. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds

Cubs vs Diamondbacks live odds

Cubs vs Diamondbacks opening odds

  • Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | Arizona -1.5 (+155)
  • Moneyline: Chicago +100 | Arizona -120
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)

Cubs vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis

  • This line opened with the D-Backs as slim -120 favorites and has shifted to -125 as of 1 p.m. ET.
  • The total opened at 9.5 and has ticked up to 10.5, which isn't surprising given how much both starters have struggled this year.
  • While the D-Backs are seventh in the majors in runs/game (5.35) and the Cubs are eighth (5.31), Chicago has struggled to score lately while Arizona is 18th in both barrel and hard-hit rate.
  • The Cubs are on a three-game winning streak while Arizona is 4-2 in its last six games.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend

The Diamondbacks have cashed the moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs Diamondbacks

Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info

Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Tuesday, 4-16-2024
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV:
MARQ, ARID
Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
(0-2, 12.08 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Tommy Henry
(0-1, 5.79 ERA)

Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather

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