The Chicago Cubs are in a prime bounce-back spot today, listed at -170 ahead of their afternoon showdown with the St. Louis Cardinals.
After being shut out yesterday, they're facing a pitcher who didn't make it through four innings against them just a couple of weeks ago. As a result, we're backing Chicago in our Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions.
Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 14, and fatten that wallet before the weekend.
Who will win Cardinals vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (+124)
Matthew Liberatore didn't escape the fourth inning the last time he took the mound against the Chicago Cubs, surrendering three earned runs on eight hits.
I'm expecting a much better performance from the team with the highest wRC+ in baseball after getting shut out yesterday. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch all own an xSLG of .464 or better in this specific matchup, and with the left-hander rocking a near-career-worst 8.8% barrel rate, Chicago should have no problem covering here.
I'd play this up to +110.
COVERS INTEL: Looking for a trend to follow here? The Cubs are undefeated in their last six games after scoring two runs or less. 
Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-116)
We're getting a lower number because the Cardinals are the best Under team in baseball, and that's fine — we'll just need a couple of runs from them to put us over the finish line.
With Clay Holmes going for Chicago, they'll do just that. The right-hander has allowed eight earned runs across his last 8 1/3 innings pitched, which should be enough to cover.
It helps to know the ball will be in play this afternoon, too — both Holmes (14%) and Liberatore (19%) are rocking minuscule strikeout numbers in this specific matchup. Let's see some runs.
Cardinals vs Cubs home run prediction: Michael Busch (+474)
Busch is 3-for-11 with a homer and a double against Liberatore, owning a .464 xSLG in the process.
Although he hasn't gone deep since Aug. 3, Busch is in a prime spot at home today, as Wrigley Field has coughed up 102 homers this season.
- ML/RL bets: 3-6, -3.26 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-5, -1.80 units
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
There's some rain in the forecast this morning, but that should clear up come game time with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures reaching a balmy 77F.
The humidity will slightly reduce air density, helping the ball travel further — which is good for our Over.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +163 | Cubs -170
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-127) | Cubs -1.5 (+124)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-116) | Under 7.5 (+108)
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
The Over is 5-0-1 in Liberatores' last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, Aug. 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (4-5, 2.86 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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